508
FXUS64 KJAN 030315 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1015 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
LOCAL RADARS WERE STILL SHOWING A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
MERIDIAN TO MONTICELLO THAT WERE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH SAGGING THROUGH OF CWA. THERE WILL STILL BE A LOW CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST UNTIL THE BAND PUSHES
SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA BY 1AM. ALTHOUGH THE STORM THREAT WILL END BY
1AM MODELS SUGGEST REDEVELOP OF RAIN BY MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WAS STILL TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR CWA SATURDAY AND BRING AN END TO THE RAIN.
/22/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...CONVECTION IS ONGOING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 211 IN EFFECT UNTIL 00Z FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, THE
EXCEPTION CURRENTLY BEING PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. A DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND
INTERACTING WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER IN PLACE. THIS
IS NOTED BY 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE, STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
BETWEEN 6.8-7.5 C/KM @ 700-500MB & VERTICAL TOTALS AROUND 30, BUT
WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR @ 20-30 KNOTS EXISTS. IN AREAS COVERED
BY AN "ENHANCED RISK" OF SEVERE STORMS, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH STORMS, ALONG WITH HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF GOLF BALLS. THEN IN AREAS COVERED UNDER A "SLIGHT RISK",
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION, BOTH FREQUENT LIGHTING AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS RESULTING IN THE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND IN LOW-
LYING AREAS IS LIKELY. THE BEST TIMING FOR SEVERE CONVECTION
REMAINS BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS IS CURRENTLY
BEING ADVERTISED.
THE INTENSITY IN STORMS WILL WANE THROUGH THE EVENING AS DAYTIME
HEATING IS LOST. HOWEVER AS THE FRONT ITSELF FINALLY BEGINS PUSHING
INTO THE CWA, CONVECTION WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO SATURDAY UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
THE FIRST OF PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO
QUIET WEATHER, ALONG WITH NOTICEABLY COOLER DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT, RAIN CHANCES ENTER BACK INTO THE FORECAST. THIS
ALSO LOOKS TO BE THE START OF ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION, THAT COULD LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. DURING
THIS TIME, SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ARE PROGGED TO AFFECT THE FORECAST
AREA BRINGING REPEATED BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA.
WHILE THIS IS AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE, THERE COULD BE SOME CONCERN FOR MULTIPLE BOUTS OF HEAVY
RAIN RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN LATER FORECASTS. /19/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AWAY
FROM THE CONVECTION, VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL BUT LOWER FLYING
CONDITIONS WL BE PSBL UNTIL AFTER 09Z WHEN IMPROVEMENT FROM THE
WEST ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A GUSTY NORTH WIND TO AROUND 18KTS WL DEVELOP AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTN. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 64 76 53 75 / 70 50 0 0
MERIDIAN 62 76 51 75 / 90 80 0 0
VICKSBURG 64 77 53 75 / 50 30 0 0
HATTIESBURG 66 80 54 80 / 80 80 0 0
NATCHEZ 63 76 54 75 / 70 40 0 0
GREENVILLE 63 74 53 72 / 80 20 0 0
GREENWOOD 63 76 52 73 / 90 40 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
/19/22
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