850
FXUS64 KJAN 030605
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
105 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
LOCAL RADARS WERE STILL SHOWING A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
MERIDIAN TO MONTICELLO THAT WERE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH SAGGING THROUGH OF CWA. THERE WILL STILL BE A LOW CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST UNTIL THE BAND PUSHES
SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA BY 1AM. ALTHOUGH THE STORM THREAT WILL END BY
1AM MODELS SUGGEST REDEVELOP OF RAIN BY MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WAS STILL TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR CWA SATURDAY AND BRING AN END TO THE RAIN.
/22/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...CONVECTION IS ONGOING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 211 IN EFFECT UNTIL 00Z FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, THE
EXCEPTION CURRENTLY BEING PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. A DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND
INTERACTING WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER IN PLACE. THIS
IS NOTED BY 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE, STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
BETWEEN 6.8-7.5 C/KM @ 700-500MB & VERTICAL TOTALS AROUND 30, BUT
WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR @ 20-30 KNOTS EXISTS. IN AREAS COVERED
BY AN "ENHANCED RISK" OF SEVERE STORMS, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH STORMS, ALONG WITH HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF GOLF BALLS. THEN IN AREAS COVERED UNDER A "SLIGHT RISK",
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION, BOTH FREQUENT LIGHTING AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS RESULTING IN THE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND IN LOW-
LYING AREAS IS LIKELY. THE BEST TIMING FOR SEVERE CONVECTION
REMAINS BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS IS CURRENTLY
BEING ADVERTISED.
THE INTENSITY IN STORMS WILL WANE THROUGH THE EVENING AS DAYTIME
HEATING IS LOST. HOWEVER AS THE FRONT ITSELF FINALLY BEGINS PUSHING
INTO THE CWA, CONVECTION WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO SATURDAY UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
THE FIRST OF PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO
QUIET WEATHER, ALONG WITH NOTICEABLY COOLER DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT, RAIN CHANCES ENTER BACK INTO THE FORECAST. THIS
ALSO LOOKS TO BE THE START OF ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION, THAT COULD LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. DURING
THIS TIME, SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ARE PROGGED TO AFFECT THE FORECAST
AREA BRINGING REPEATED BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA.
WHILE THIS IS AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE, THERE COULD BE SOME CONCERN FOR MULTIPLE BOUTS OF HEAVY
RAIN RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN LATER FORECASTS. /19/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MVFR/IFR CATEGORY CEILINGS AND PERHAPS
ADDITIONAL -SHRA/VCTS WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING AS A WEAK COLD ADVECTION WEATHER PATTERN EVOLVES. CEILINGS
SHOULD LIFT AND RESTRICTIONS IMPROVE TO VFR AS WE GO INTO AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND THE INCREASED MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR
GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WIND. /EC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 53 75 52 79 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 51 75 49 78 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 53 75 53 78 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 54 80 52 82 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 54 75 54 78 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 53 72 53 76 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 52 73 52 77 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
/
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