646
FXUS64 KJAN 030908
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
408 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: CONVECTIVE RAINFALL HAS ENDED FOR NOW, BUT
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND BRING ONE MORE
ROUND OF STORMS TO MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AS LINGERING MOISTURE HEATS UP THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT, THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT,
INSTABILITY, AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS. IT APPEARS THE MOST INTENSE UPDRAFTS WILL OCCUR
DURING THE LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS, AND HAVE INCLUDED
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IN OUR HAZARD GRAPHICS PER
LATEST SPC OUTLOOKS. OTHERWISE, ADDITIONAL RAINFALL SHOULD NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT WITH ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS BEING PROGRESSIVE. EXPECT
QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT AS DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SUNDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WILL BE THE COOLEST IN OVER TWO WEEKS.
/EC/
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MS VALLEY SUNDAY INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. QUIET CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SEASONAL
AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT:
A LONGWAVE, BLOCKING PATTERN WITH LOWS CENTERED NEAR THE ROCKY
MTS/OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW
FOR SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE LOWER
MS VALLEY, BRINGING MULTIPLE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
BEGINNING TUESDAY. PW VALUES BETWEEN 1.5-2 INCHES, ALONG WITH
TRAINING STORMS AREAWIDE MAY LEAD TO POSSIBLE FLOODING OVER
SEVERAL DAYS. WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED A "SLIGHT" RISK FOR FLOODING FOR
THE CWA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE
EXPECTED. THE WET PERIOD WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
LONGWAVE BLOCKING PATTERN SLOWLY MIGRATES EASTWARD. /SW/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025OF MVFR/IFR CATEGORY CEILINGS
AND PERHAPS ADDITIONAL -SHRA/VCTS WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING AS A WEAK COLD ADVECTION WEATHER PATTERN
EVOLVES. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT AND RESTRICTIONS IMPROVE TO VFR AS
WE GO INTO AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND THE INCREASED MIXING
WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
SHOULD PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WIND. /EC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 77 52 74 51 / 40 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 76 50 75 49 / 70 10 0 0
VICKSBURG 77 52 74 52 / 20 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 79 54 78 52 / 80 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 76 53 74 52 / 40 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 74 52 72 53 / 20 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 76 50 72 51 / 40 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/SW/
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