852
FXUS64 KJAN 031735 AAC
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1235 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 951 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
A COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM NEAR GRENADA TO VICKSBURG TO NATCHEZ
AND IS MAKING STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG
THE FRONT ACROSS NORTH AND WEST MS THIS MORNING. HEADING THROUGH
TODAY WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND A FEW
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DECK, MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THANKS
ALSO IN PART TO STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH A
DAMAGING WIND GUST AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THREAT. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, RAIN CHANCES WILL END BY LATE AFTERNOON.
TODAY'S FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO NUDGE UP POPS AND THUNDER
PROBABILITIES IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA GIVEN
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT. /DL/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: CONVECTIVE RAINFALL HAS ENDED FOR NOW, BUT
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND BRING ONE MORE
ROUND OF STORMS TO MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AS LINGERING MOISTURE HEATS UP THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT, THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT,
INSTABILITY, AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS. IT APPEARS THE MOST INTENSE UPDRAFTS WILL OCCUR
DURING THE LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS, AND HAVE INCLUDED
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IN OUR HAZARD GRAPHICS PER
LATEST SPC OUTLOOKS. OTHERWISE, ADDITIONAL RAINFALL SHOULD NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT WITH ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS BEING PROGRESSIVE. EXPECT
QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT AS DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SUNDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WILL BE THE COOLEST IN OVER TWO WEEKS.
/EC/
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MS VALLEY SUNDAY INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. QUIET CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SEASONAL
AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT:
A LONGWAVE, BLOCKING PATTERN WITH LOWS CENTERED NEAR THE ROCKY
MTS/OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW
FOR SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE LOWER
MS VALLEY, BRINGING MULTIPLE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
BEGINNING TUESDAY. PW VALUES BETWEEN 1.5-2 INCHES, ALONG WITH
TRAINING STORMS AREAWIDE MAY LEAD TO POSSIBLE FLOODING OVER
SEVERAL DAYS. WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED A "SLIGHT" RISK FOR FLOODING FOR
THE CWA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE
EXPECTED. THE WET PERIOD WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
LONGWAVE BLOCKING PATTERN SLOWLY MIGRATES EASTWARD. /SW/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
AN MVFR STRATUS DECK STILL EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
AND WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND A CHANCE OF TS ALONG
IT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TO LATE AFTERNOON IN EAST MS. BEHIND THE
FRONT, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW AND CLOUDS WILL DECREASE WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING AREAWIDE BY THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF 50 KT WIND GUSTS AND 1
INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. /DL/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 52 74 51 78 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 50 75 49 78 / 10 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 52 74 52 79 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 54 78 52 82 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 53 74 52 78 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 52 72 53 77 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 50 72 51 77 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DL/EC/SW
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