490
FXUS64 KJAN 032337 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
637 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
A "MARGINAL" RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT HOUR THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE I-59 CORRIDOR AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BECOME QUIET THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
HOVERING OVER THE MID TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION TO PUSH EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE UPPER EAST COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ACROSS ALABAMA
INTO GEORGIA. A BUILDING 1019MB SFC HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL TRACK EAST OVER THE MS VALLEY SUNDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HREF GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO SHOW LOW
PROBABILITIES (10-20%) OF PATCHY FOG MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF I-55
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG
WITH SEASONAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE WEST OF THE MS RIVER BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.
TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
LONG TERM GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS CONTINUING TO HIGHLIGHT A LONGWAVE,
BLOCKING PATTERN WITH LOWS CENTERED NEAR THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS/OHIO
VALLEY. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN IS FORECASTED TO TRACK EAST ACROSS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK. AS THIS
PATTERN SHIFTS EAST, MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST CONUS ALLOWING FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WEST OF THE MS RIVER TUESDAY
MORNING. STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTING
PWATS BETWEEN 1.5-2 INCHES, TRAINING STORMS AREAWIDE, AND THE SPC
ENSEMBLE VIEWER SHOWING A STRONG QPF SIGNAL FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, STORMS MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
A "SLIGHT" RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED BY THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS, WE WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED A
"LIMITED" THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND ALL OF OUR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
PARISHES FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
SEVERAL AREAS IN THE "LIMITED" THREAT COULD GET UPGRADED TO AN
"ELEVATED" RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING. WE WILL KEEP YOU
UPDATED ON ANY CHANGES AS WE GET CLOSER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS FUTURE GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE BLOCKING PATTERN SLOWLY
PROPAGATING EASTWARD. /CR/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 51 73 51 79 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 50 74 48 78 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 52 73 52 79 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 53 78 52 82 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 53 73 52 78 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 51 71 53 77 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 50 72 51 77 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
/CR/22
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page