726
FXUS64 KJAN 041756
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1256 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN A POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WITH DEEP
LAYER NORTHWESTERLIES. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TODAY BEYOND
TYPICAL DIURNAL WARMING INTO THE MID 70S F BEFORE DIPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S F AGAIN TONIGHT. /86/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 451 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: THE NEAR TERM WILL FEATURE QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS EXPECTED. A TYPICAL
SPRING OMEGA BLOCK IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE OH VALLEY REGION, WHICH WILL IN TURN KEEP DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
THE WIND LIGHT, AND THIS WILL ALLOW LOWS TONIGHT TO FALL WELL
BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY MAY STANDARDS (UP TO 10 DEG F DEPARTURES).
/EC/
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST.
ANOTHER MILD DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
QUIET CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION, BUT A HIGHLY IMPACTFUL WET
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE THE REST OF THE WEEK AS
MULTIPLE FEATURES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. A LONGWAVE, BLOCKING
PATTERN WITH LOWS CENTERED NEAR THE ROCKY MTS/OHIO VALLEY IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST, PROVIDING AMPLE MOISTURE TO
RETURN TO THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES PROGRESS THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY, BRINGING
MULTIPLE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
WHERE A WEST TO EAST LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY ULTIMATELY SETS
UP WILL HELP DETERMINE WHERE THE RAINFALL WILL BE GREATEST, WITH
IVT AND PW VALUES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE 99TH CLIMO PERCENTILES,
AND WITH TRAINING OF HEAVY SHOWERS/STORMS OVER A SEVERAL DAY
PERIOD. GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF HIGHLY ANOMALOUS MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE, FLASH FLOODING WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS WE
GO THROUGH THE WEEK. WE HAVE ADDED AN "ELEVATED" RISK (4-7 INCHES
ELSEWHERE) FOR FLOODING FOR WESTERN & CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CWA IN
THE HAZARD GRAPHICS, AND KEPT A "LIMITED" THREAT (2-4 INCHES)
ELSEWHERE. NOW THAT WE'RE MOVING INTO SHORTER RANGE FORECAST AND
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE, WE'LL BE MONITORING
GUIDANCE FOR LOCATIONS THAT COULD HAVE A MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
THREAT. AS IT STANDS, FLASH FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS WILL BE
MOST LIKELY, AND ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING COULD BECOME POSSIBLE.
PERSISTENT RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
LONGWAVE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN AND THE TROUGH AXIS/FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MIGRATE EASTWARD. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY DECREASE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. /SW/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. /86/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 50 78 58 79 / 0 0 10 60
MERIDIAN 48 78 54 80 / 0 0 10 40
VICKSBURG 51 78 60 76 / 0 0 10 80
HATTIESBURG 51 81 58 83 / 0 0 10 50
NATCHEZ 52 78 60 76 / 0 0 20 80
GREENVILLE 52 77 58 76 / 0 0 10 60
GREENWOOD 51 77 57 78 / 0 0 10 50
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
LP/SAS20/LP
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