481
FXUS64 KJAN 041937
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
237 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN A POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WITH DEEP
LAYER NORTHWESTERLIES. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TODAY BEYOND
TYPICAL DIURNAL WARMING INTO THE MID 70S F BEFORE DIPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S F AGAIN TONIGHT. /86/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW ...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE IS ON TAP WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLIES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE UPPER 40S F AND LOWER
50S F UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTERNOON HIGHS MONDAY WILL MODERATE
TOWARD MORE SEASONAL VALUES, RISING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S F FOR
MOST, AND AROUND 80 F ALONG THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR. /86/
TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN/FLASH FLOODING.
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BRING ABOUT A REGIME CHANGE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SURGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO RAPIDLY
CLIMB INTO THE 99TH PERCENTILE RANGE. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO COINCIDE WITH AN EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
BLOCKING PATTERN CAUSING A DECENT AMOUNT OF LIFT WHICH WILL RESULT
IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
FOR TUESDAY ESPECIALLY. TOTALS RANGE FROM 4-6 INCHES LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITHIN THE CENTRAL REGION OF THE CWA, WITH
TOTALS ABOUT HALF THAT TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. THE OMEGA BLOCKING
PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE AREA, AND THUS A DIURNALLY DOMINANT
REGIME IS SET TO TAKE HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IN RESPONSE TO THIS SLOW EASTWARD SHIFT AREAS OF CONCERN FOR HEAVY
RAIN WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF
THE CWA, WHERE TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 2-4 INCHES. HIGH AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD,
WITH MORE SUBDUED LIFT DAY TO DAY RAIN RATES ARE EXPECTED TO EASE UP
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING TIMEFRAME, WITH ISOLATED REMNANTS
PERSISTING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EVERYDAY FOR THE NEXT WEEK. A
FULL EROSION OF THIS OVERALL BLOCKING PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK. /OAJ/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. /86/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 49 78 58 78 / 0 0 10 50
MERIDIAN 48 78 54 79 / 0 0 0 30
VICKSBURG 50 79 59 76 / 0 0 10 70
HATTIESBURG 50 81 57 83 / 0 0 10 50
NATCHEZ 52 79 60 74 / 0 0 20 80
GREENVILLE 52 76 58 76 / 0 0 10 50
GREENWOOD 50 77 57 77 / 0 0 0 30
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
LP/OAJ/LP
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