412
FXUS64 KJAN 050519
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1219 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 926 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE NEXT SEVEN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS MORE OF THE
CWA WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S. SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWED A
FEW CLOUDS IN THE NORTHEAST BUT MUCH OF THE CWA WILL SEE CLEAR
SKIES AND A NEAR CALM WIND WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING OF OUR COOL AND DRY AIRMASS. FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED. /22/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW: HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGE IS ON TAP WITH LIGHT NORTHERLIES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO
THE UPPER 40S F AND LOWER 50S F UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
AFTERNOON HIGHS MONDAY WILL MODERATE TOWARD MORE SEASONAL VALUES,
RISING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S F FOR MOST, AND AROUND 80 F ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR. /86/
TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN/FLASH FLOODING.
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BRING ABOUT A REGIME CHANGE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SURGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO RAPIDLY
CLIMB INTO THE 99TH PERCENTILE RANGE. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO COINCIDE WITH AN EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
BLOCKING PATTERN CAUSING A DECENT AMOUNT OF LIFT WHICH WILL RESULT
IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
FOR TUESDAY ESPECIALLY. TOTALS RANGE FROM 4-6 INCHES LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITHIN THE CENTRAL REGION OF THE CWA, WITH
TOTALS ABOUT HALF THAT TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. THE OMEGA BLOCKING
PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE AREA, AND THUS A DIURNALLY DOMINANT
REGIME IS SET TO TAKE HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IN RESPONSE TO THIS SLOW EASTWARD SHIFT AREAS OF CONCERN FOR HEAVY
RAIN WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF
THE CWA, WHERE TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 2-4 INCHES. HIGH AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD,
WITH MORE SUBDUED LIFT DAY TO DAY RAIN RATES ARE EXPECTED TO EASE UP
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING TIMEFRAME, WITH ISOLATED REMNANTS
PERSISTING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EVERYDAY FOR THE NEXT WEEK. A
FULL EROSION OF THIS OVERALL BLOCKING PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK. /OAJ/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WIND WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE WITH BRIEF
VSBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG. /EC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 58 78 64 78 / 10 50 90 90
MERIDIAN 54 79 61 78 / 0 30 80 90
VICKSBURG 59 76 65 78 / 10 70 90 80
HATTIESBURG 57 83 66 81 / 10 50 80 100
NATCHEZ 60 74 66 77 / 20 80 90 80
GREENVILLE 58 76 63 76 / 10 50 100 60
GREENWOOD 57 77 63 76 / 0 30 90 70
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/86/OAJ/EC
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