517
FXUS64 KJAN 051518 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1018 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1011 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY BEFORE WE
MOVE BACK INTO A WET AND STORMY PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING RAINS
AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, INCLUDING THE LIKELY NEED FOR A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA, WILL BE FORTHCOMING BY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL
FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MID 70S F TO NEAR 80 F ACROSS THE
AREA BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 50S F FOR MOST AND NEAR 60 F IN THE
SOUTHWEST WHERE STORM-PRECEDING CLOUDS WILL BEGIN OVERSPREADING
BEFORE DAWN. /86/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: RELATIVELY UNIMPACTFUL WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE AS WE GO THROUGH THE NEAR TERM, BUT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE WEATHER PATTERN ARE COMING SOON. FOR NOW, THE CLOSED LOW
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN DRY AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW WILL BEGIN LIFTING
OUT IN RESPONSE A TO ANOTHER CLOSED LOW CROSSING THE PLAINS
STATES, AND THE INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT
SHOWER CHANCES PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUESDAY OVER SOUTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. /EC/
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: AFTER A FEW DRIER DAYS, WE'LL SEE A TREND
BACK TO GREATER RAIN CHANCES AS WE LOSE THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL
OMEGA BLOCK AND THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS TOWARD
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS A
RESULT, A FRONT WILL WAVER ALONG THE GULF COAST, SERVING AS A
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR FREQUENT RAIN CHANCES.
DURING THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME, THIS FRONT WILL
TEMPORARILY LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BECOME POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY WITHIN THE INCREASING WAA REGIME.
THEN AS A POTENT UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES, DEEPER CONVECTION,
POTENTIALLY IN THE FORM OF AN MCS, WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE
AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. INCREASING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR THIS CONVECTION TO BE ORGANIZED
AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN,
BUT ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW, A MARGINAL
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS ADVERTISED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST
LA, SOUTHEAST AR, AND SOUTHWEST MS. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL LARGELY MODULATE HOW FAR NORTH THE
SEVERE THREAT EXTENDS. ANTICIPATED STORM MOTION/CAM GUIDANCE/ML
GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST THIS OUTLOOK MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED MORE
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MS, AS EXISTING
STORMS COULD SUSTAIN THEMSELVES INTO THE EVENING EASTWARD INTO
THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE, FLOODING WILL BE AN INCREASING CONCERN AS CONVECTION
TRAINS ALONG THE QUASISTATIONARY FRONT NEAR WHICH ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE WILL POOL. PRECIPITABLE WATER, APPROACHING 2 INCHES AT
TIMES, AND INTEGRATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE
HIGHER END OF MODEL CLIMATOLOGY FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. DURING THIS TIME FRAME, STORM
TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 4-7" ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
EXCEPT ACROSS NORTH AND NORTHEAST MS WHERE THE 2-4" RANGE APPEARS
MORE LIKELY NORTH OF THE FRONT. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN RATES ARE HIGHER IN CONVECTION. AND THE
TOTAL AMOUNTS MAY LEAD TO NEW RIVER FLOODING. WE CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT AN ELEVATED FLOOD THREAT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA IN HWO
GRAPHICS, AND FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE POSTED LATER TODAY AS WE
CONTINUE TO HONE IN ON THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED.
WHILE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AM CONVECTION WILL LIKELY HELP PUSH
THE SURFACE FRONT BACK SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST, IT WILL
REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES OF
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE AS ADDITIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES SHIFT
ACROSS THE AREA. WE MAY FINALLY SEE A DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES BY
THE WEEKEND AS INCREASING RIDGING OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY PUSHES
DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. /DL/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
ASIDE FROM A FEW PATCHY AREAS OF FOG BRIEFLY REDUCING VSBY EARLY
THIS MORNING, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND. /EC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 78 58 78 63 / 0 10 50 90
MERIDIAN 77 54 78 60 / 0 0 30 80
VICKSBURG 79 58 76 63 / 0 10 70 90
HATTIESBURG 81 57 80 65 / 0 10 40 80
NATCHEZ 79 61 74 66 / 0 10 80 90
GREENVILLE 77 58 76 62 / 0 10 50 100
GREENWOOD 77 56 78 61 / 0 0 30 90
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
LP/DL/EC
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