260
FXUS64 KJAN 060856
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
356 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
TODAY AND TONIGHT: THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE
FROM THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TONIGHT ALONG WITH A
LOWER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP
ANALYSIS SHOWED THE CIRCULATION AROUND A LARGE CLOSED LOW SPINNING
JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND WILL HELP DEVELOP
VIGOROUS CONVECTION TO OUR WEST THAT WILL SPREAD INTO OUR CWA
THROUGH TONIGHT. INITIALLY THIS MORNING WL STILL HAVE A SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED TO OUR EAST AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST DRAWS CLOSER TO OUR
CWA THE RESULTING INCREASE IN WAA WILL HELP SEND THE STALLED
BOUNDARY BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EMANATING FROM THE
SURFACE LOW OVER TO OUR WEST. LOCAL RADARS ALREADY SHOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM EAST TEXAS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THE 00Z TUE JAN SOUNDING ONLY HAD A PWAT
OF THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH AND DEW POINTS WERE RUNNING IN THE
MID 50S ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA. SO, EXPECT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
THE WEATHER TODAY AS PWATS SURGE BACK TO NEAR TWO INCHES WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS STILL SUGGESTS THAT THE
CONVECTION TO OUR WEST WILL DEVELOP INTO AN MCS AND MOVE INTO OUR
SOUTHWEST ZONES BY EVENING AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE EVENING.
CONSIDERING THE ANTICIPATED HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT,
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
WITH THIS ACTIVITY BUT A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OF AROUND 4 INCHES OVER A SHORT AMOUNT
OF TIME IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.
THERE REMAINS AN "ELEVATED" THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BASTROP,
LOUISIANA TO MERIDIAN, MISSISSIPPI WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT. OTHERWISE, WITH THE INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ALONG WITH
THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT COOLER THAN
NORMAL TODAY. THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN NORMAL TONIGHT. /22/
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE BULK OF
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SHIFTED TOWARD THE GULF COAST.
HOWEVER, CONSIDERABLE STRATIFORM RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PERSIST WELL INLAND ACROSS SOUTH MS AND CENTRAL LA. FURTHER
NORTH, IT IS LESS CERTAIN THAT MUCH RAIN WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY
IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHT'S CONVECTION WITH THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE
FRONT SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE AREA, BUT SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. A NEW SURFACE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND SHIFT FROM THE ARKLATEX TOWARD THE MID SOUTH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING RENEWED RAIN CHANCES DURING THAT
TIME FRAME. THOUGH THE BULK OF THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT FOR THE
FLOOD WATCH AREA TILTS MORE INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WATCH
(TONIGHT), INCREASINGLY SATURATED SOILS WILL MAKE THE WATCH AREA
MORE PRONE TO FLOODING WITH LESSER RAINFALL WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, AND THUS, THE WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THAT
TIME.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.
THIS WILL KEEP POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
AROUND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE SOMEWHAT DIURNALLY DRIVEN, THOUGH SHOWERS MAY PERSIST
INTO THE OVERNIGHT IN SOME AREAS. THOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE, AVERAGE AMOUNTS AND RAIN RATES WILL BE LOWER, AND THUS,
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING IS LESS LIKELY THAN EARLIER IN THIS
WEEK. TEMPS WILL RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. /DL/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
ALTHOUGH -SHRA WL BE PSBL ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND TUE, VFR
CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AREAWIDE UNTIL AFTER 23Z. AFTER 23Z
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM THE SW AS WIDESPREAD SHRA
AND SCATTERED TSRA DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. LOWEST FLYING
CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE SW HALF OF THE AREA 00Z WED THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 75 63 79 63 / 70 100 70 40
MERIDIAN 77 60 78 62 / 50 90 80 40
VICKSBURG 73 63 79 63 / 90 100 60 30
HATTIESBURG 78 65 80 65 / 70 90 90 60
NATCHEZ 73 64 77 63 / 90 90 70 40
GREENVILLE 77 63 76 63 / 60 90 50 20
GREENWOOD 79 63 78 63 / 30 90 70 30
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR MSZ040>043-047>066-072>074.
LA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.
22/DL
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