057
FXUS64 KJAN 061756
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1256 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING TODAY, WITH
CONTINUOUS BOUTS OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT (1 OUT OF 5) EXISTS FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE REGION, AND A SLIGHT SEVERE THREAT (2 OUT OF 5) EXISTS FOR
AREAS AROUND NATCHEZ.
AN END TO OUR DRIER DAYS IS ON THE HORIZON TODAY WITH THE CLOSED
LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. THE
APPROACHING LOW (SITUATED ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF AN UPPER LEVEL
"OMEGA BLOCK") WILL RESULT IN A SURGE OF WARM MOIST AIR WHICH WILL
HELP SEND THE STALLED BOUNDARY SITUATED OFF OF THE COAST BACK TO
THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EMANATING FROM THE SURFACE LOW OVER TO
OUR WEST. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS A PRIMARY FOCUSING MECHANISM
FOR OUR PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. AS THE WARM FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA OUR LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES
WILL INCREASE UP TO 10F; IN TURN, PROVIDING 2IN PWATS AND IVT INTO
THE 99TH PERCENTILE THROUGH TODAY. THIS TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE FLUX
GENERATED BY THE POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO
TRIGGER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LOUISIANA AND
SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON INTO THE MORNING. SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL SERVE TO IMPEDE THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF
THE FRONT AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE BOUNDARY BECOMING STALLED
SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF I-20. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT, POTENTIALLY ORGANIZING INTO
AN MCS BY SUNSET THAT COULD MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY,
FURTHER RESULTING IN A STALL OF THE BOUNDARY. CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS
CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARDS A WELL DEFINED AREA OF HEAVY RAIN
(4-8IN/12HRS) LOCATED IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT (WEST OF I- 55
& SOUTH OF I-20) AND THIS SOLUTION APPEARS REASONABLE. WITH
REPLENISHED GULF HEAT AND HUMIDITY BEING PUSHED INTO THE STALLED
BOUNDARY, TRAINING AND STORM REGENERATION COULD RESULT IN A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF VERY INTENSE (2+"/HR) RAINFALL RATES OVER A PROLONGED
PERIOD/MULTIPLE WAVES OF STORMS. WHILE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING ARE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE THREATS FOR THE TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME, THERE DOES EXIST A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON TO EVENING. MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE SHIFTED LITTLE OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS AND CONTINUE TO INDICATE HELICITY VALUES IN THE
LOWEST 3 KM TO EXCEED 200 M^2/S^2 WITH SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR VALUES
ABOVE 400 M^2/S^2 SHOULD MESOSCALE UPSCALE GROWTH OCCUR. CAPE
VALUES REMAIN FAIRLY SUBDUED FOR EARLY MAY; HOWEVER, GIVEN OUR
FRONTALLY INDUCED MECHANICAL LIFTING THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
LIFT THAT WILL NOT BE OVERLY RELIANT ON THERMODYNAMIC INSTABILITY.
WHILE THE COLUMN WILL BE GENERALLY SATURATED, OCCASIONAL DRY AIR
INTRUSION THROUGH THE MID LEVELS COULD ADD A BIT OF EVAPORATIVE
COOLING AND LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN COLD POOL
DOWNDRAFT WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ALSO FAIRLY STRONG.
ALL THIS TOGETHER IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES HAS PROVIDED US AMPLE
REASONING TO SIGNAL A MARGINAL AND SLIGHT SEVERE THREAT ACROSS
THOSE AREAS. PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL
PERHAPS UP TO QUARTER SIZE, BUT A TORNADO OR TWO CAN`T BE RULED
OUT. FURTHERMORE, CONDITIONS ARE IDEAL FOR WAKE LOW DEVELOPMENT
BEHIND THE BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION, WHICH COULD EASILY PUSH OUT
50KT+ WINDS. CAUTION WILL NEED TO BE EXERCISED AS INDIVIDUALS MAY
FEEL THAT ONCE THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION HAS PASSED THAT THEY
WILL BE CLEAR FROM THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THIS WILL NOT BE THE
CASE, DUE TO THIS WAKE LOW POTENTIAL. /OAJ/
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE BULK OF
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SHIFTED TOWARD THE GULF COAST.
HOWEVER, CONSIDERABLE STRATIFORM RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PERSIST WELL INLAND ACROSS SOUTH MS AND CENTRAL LA. FURTHER
NORTH, IT IS LESS CERTAIN THAT MUCH RAIN WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY
IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHT'S CONVECTION WITH THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE
FRONT SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE AREA, BUT SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. A NEW SURFACE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND SHIFT FROM THE ARKLATEX TOWARD THE MID SOUTH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING RENEWED RAIN CHANCES DURING THAT
TIME FRAME. THOUGH THE BULK OF THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT FOR THE
FLOOD WATCH AREA TILTS MORE INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WATCH
(TONIGHT), INCREASINGLY SATURATED SOILS WILL MAKE THE WATCH AREA
MORE PRONE TO FLOODING WITH LESSER RAINFALL WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, AND THUS, THE WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THAT
TIME.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.
THIS WILL KEEP POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
AROUND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE SOMEWHAT DIURNALLY DRIVEN, THOUGH SHOWERS MAY PERSIST
INTO THE OVERNIGHT IN SOME AREAS. THOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE, AVERAGE AMOUNTS AND RAIN RATES WILL BE LOWER, AND THUS,
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING IS LESS LIKELY THAN EARLIER IN THIS
WEEK. TEMPS WILL RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. /DL/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE AREA FOR NOW, HOWEVER,
INCOMING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND SUBSEQUENT LOWERED CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL CAUSE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT THE AREA. THE POOREST FLYING
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
BETWEEN 00Z THIS EVENING THROUGH 14Z WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO BEGIN TO IMPROVE JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 63 79 63 81 / 100 70 40 60
MERIDIAN 60 78 62 81 / 90 80 40 70
VICKSBURG 63 79 63 81 / 100 60 30 50
HATTIESBURG 65 80 65 81 / 90 90 60 90
NATCHEZ 64 77 63 79 / 90 70 40 60
GREENVILLE 63 76 63 79 / 90 50 20 50
GREENWOOD 63 78 63 82 / 90 70 30 50
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MSZ040>043-047>066-
072>074.
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
AR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.
/HUN
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