301
FXUS64 KJAN 061941
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
241 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING TODAY, WITH
CONTINUOUS BOUTS OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT (1 OUT OF 5) EXISTS FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE REGION, AND A SLIGHT SEVERE THREAT (2 OUT OF 5) EXISTS FOR
AREAS AROUND NATCHEZ.
AN END TO OUR DRIER DAYS IS ON THE HORIZON TODAY WITH THE CLOSED
LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. THE
APPROACHING LOW (SITUATED ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF AN UPPER LEVEL
"OMEGA BLOCK") WILL RESULT IN A SURGE OF WARM MOIST AIR WHICH WILL
HELP SEND THE STALLED BOUNDARY SITUATED OFF OF THE COAST BACK TO
THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EMANATING FROM THE SURFACE LOW OVER TO
OUR WEST. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS A PRIMARY FOCUSING MECHANISM
FOR OUR PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. AS THE WARM FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA OUR LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES
WILL INCREASE UP TO 10F; IN TURN, PROVIDING 2IN PWATS AND IVT INTO
THE 99TH PERCENTILE THROUGH TODAY. THIS TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE FLUX
GENERATED BY THE POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO
TRIGGER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LOUISIANA AND
SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON INTO THE MORNING. SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL SERVE TO IMPEDE THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF
THE FRONT AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE BOUNDARY BECOMING STALLED
SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF I-20. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT, POTENTIALLY ORGANIZING INTO
AN MCS BY SUNSET THAT COULD MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY,
FURTHER RESULTING IN A STALL OF THE BOUNDARY. CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS
CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARDS A WELL DEFINED AREA OF HEAVY RAIN
(4-8IN/12HRS) LOCATED IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT (WEST OF I- 55
& SOUTH OF I-20) AND THIS SOLUTION APPEARS REASONABLE. WITH
REPLENISHED GULF HEAT AND HUMIDITY BEING PUSHED INTO THE STALLED
BOUNDARY, TRAINING AND STORM REGENERATION COULD RESULT IN A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF VERY INTENSE (2+"/HR) RAINFALL RATES OVER A PROLONGED
PERIOD/MULTIPLE WAVES OF STORMS. WHILE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING ARE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE THREATS FOR THE TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME, THERE DOES EXIST A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON TO EVENING. MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE SHIFTED LITTLE OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS AND CONTINUE TO INDICATE HELICITY VALUES IN THE
LOWEST 3 KM TO EXCEED 200 M^2/S^2 WITH SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR VALUES
ABOVE 400 M^2/S^2 SHOULD MESOSCALE UPSCALE GROWTH OCCUR. CAPE
VALUES REMAIN FAIRLY SUBDUED FOR EARLY MAY; HOWEVER, GIVEN OUR
FRONTALLY INDUCED MECHANICAL LIFTING THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
LIFT THAT WILL NOT BE OVERLY RELIANT ON THERMODYNAMIC INSTABILITY.
WHILE THE COLUMN WILL BE GENERALLY SATURATED, OCCASIONAL DRY AIR
INTRUSION THROUGH THE MID LEVELS COULD ADD A BIT OF EVAPORATIVE
COOLING AND LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN COLD POOL
DOWNDRAFT WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ALSO FAIRLY STRONG.
ALL THIS TOGETHER IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES HAS PROVIDED US AMPLE
REASONING TO SIGNAL A MARGINAL AND SLIGHT SEVERE THREAT ACROSS
THOSE AREAS. PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL
PERHAPS UP TO QUARTER SIZE, BUT A TORNADO OR TWO CAN`T BE RULED
OUT. FURTHERMORE, CONDITIONS ARE IDEAL FOR WAKE LOW DEVELOPMENT
BEHIND THE BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION, WHICH COULD EASILY PUSH OUT
50KT+ WINDS. CAUTION WILL NEED TO BE EXERCISED AS INDIVIDUALS MAY
FEEL THAT ONCE THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION HAS PASSED THAT THEY
WILL BE CLEAR FROM THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THIS WILL NOT BE THE
CASE, DUE TO THIS WAKE LOW POTENTIAL.
ONCE A SAMPLING OF THE WEATHER PATTERN TAKES PLACE TODAY AND DEPENDING ON
HOW THESE DYNAMICS SHIFT THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY OF GENERATING ANOTHER
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT FOR WEDNESDAY, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT
THAT ANOTHER GRAPHIC WILL BE NEEDED./OAJ/
TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK...
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT THROUGH THE AREA AND WAVER NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH A FEW WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES TRANSITING OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 25% EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN RATES AND STORM
COVERAGE WITH THIS ACTIVITY LOOK TO BE FAR MORE MANAGEABLE FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH MOST AREAS RECEIVING LESS THAN AN ADDITIONAL INCH LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE PRIMARILY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN, REACHING A CRESCENDO OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS BY MID-AFTERNOON, WINDING DOWN TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO BY LATE EVENING. THIS WEEKEND
COUNTIES/PARISHES ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, COULD SEE A
BREAK IN THE RAIN BUT EXPECT A LINGERING SHOWER OR TWO. LONG TERM GUIDANCE
INDICATES IT MAY BE A WEEK OR MORE BEFORE WE SEE A BREAK IN THIS PATTERN
AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD./OAJ/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE AREA FOR NOW, HOWEVER,
INCOMING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND SUBSEQUENT LOWERED CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL CAUSE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT THE AREA. THE POOREST FLYING
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
BETWEEN 00Z THIS EVENING THROUGH 14Z WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO BEGIN TO IMPROVE JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 63 79 63 81 / 100 70 40 60
MERIDIAN 60 78 62 81 / 90 80 40 70
VICKSBURG 63 79 63 81 / 100 60 30 50
HATTIESBURG 65 80 65 81 / 90 90 60 90
NATCHEZ 64 77 63 79 / 90 70 40 60
GREENVILLE 63 76 63 79 / 90 50 20 50
GREENWOOD 63 78 63 82 / 90 70 30 50
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MSZ040>043-047>066-
072>074.
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
AR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.
OAJ/OAJ/
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