535
FXUS64 KJAN 071815 AAC
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
115 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
CLEANED UP POPS AND SHORT-TERM WEATHER ELEMENTS THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH CLOUDS IN PLACE,
NUDGED MAXT SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ENVIRONMENT IS
PRETTY WORKED OVER, AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED
IN OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN FAR SOUTH MS FROM STORMS ONGOING AT THE
LA/MS GULF COAST, BUT REST OF THE AREA WILL JUST HAVE THE CHANCE
FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES
NORTH OF OUR AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. /NF/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
REST OF TONIGHT INTO TODAY:
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY EXITING THE CWA TO THE EAST AS STORMS HAVE
MOSTLY CONGEALED INTO A SINGLE A LINE/QLCS FEATURE. STILL SEEING
SOME SIGNS OF LIFE WITHIN THESE, WITH NOTABLE REAR INFLOW JET SURGE
IN STORM NEAR BORDER OF LAMAR/COVINGTON/JONES/FORREST COUNTIES
LEADING TO SMALL BOWING SEGMENT AND SOME ROTATION ALONG THE LINE.
BEHIND THIS IS LARGE RAIN SHIELD THAT IS SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
WITHIN THE STRATIFORM REGION BRINGING STEADY RAIN AND OCCASIONAL
THUNDER. OF NOTE IN THE NW IS SOME SIGNS OF WAKE LOW DEVELOPMENT,
WITH SEVERAL SITES IN THE WEST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MS (SUCH AS
GREENVILLE AND CLEVELAND GUSTING TO 25-35 MPH ALONG THE EDGE OF THE
RAIN SHIELD. THIS MAY CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT, LEADING TO SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS.
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT HAS BROUGHT TODAY'S CONVECTION HAS MOVED
VERY LITTLE, SO MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE DRAWN UP FROM THE GULF
ALLOWING FOR CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT TO THE SW. CURRENT CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE THIS CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA THANKS TO RAIN-COOLED AIR PREVENTING SURFACE
DESTABILIZATION AS IT LIFTS MOISTURE UP CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE ANOTHER POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE GULF COAST. THIS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR
AFOREMENTIONED REASONS, BUT SOME MOISTURE MAY BE DRAWN NORTH WITH
THIS FEATURE TO ALLOW FOR SOME INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO THE SOUTH.
IF ENOUGH CLEARING CAN OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON, SOME DIURNAL
CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL FURTHER TO THE NORTH. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVIEST RAIN HAS
FALLEN TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE RAIN SHIELD THROUGH THE
EVENING. WHILE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED
TOMORROW, ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF DUMPING A QUICK
HALF ON INCH OF RAIN OR MORE. GIVEN NUMEROUS RIVERS, CREEKS, AND
STREAMS ARE IN FLOOD ACROSS THE REGION, ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
COULD LEAD TO IMMEDIATE RISES AND POTENTIAL FLOODING GIVEN SATURATED
CONDITIONS.
LUSK
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A SYSTEM THAT WANTS
TO OVERSTAY ITS WELCOME. UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT TODAY'S
WEATHER WILL HAVE SLOWLY MEANDERED TO THE EAST AS IT CONTINUES TO
REMAIN UNATTACHED FROM THE UPPER LEVEL JET. ANTICYCLONIC ROSSBY WAVE
BREAK IS NOTED TO THE NORTH OF THIS FEATURE THAT WILL AID IN KEEPING
IT REMOVED FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND EVEN INJECT A BIT UP UPPER
LEVEL PV INTO THE SYSTEM THAT GETS PINCHED OFF FROM A WAVE
TRAVERSING OVER THE NE. IN PLAIN LANGUAGE - EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW TO LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM, WHICH
WILL BRING REPEATED ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS POTENTIALLY A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL
ENSEMBLES HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM, BUT ALL ARE CONSISTENT IN DRAWING MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST THAT WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES.
AS TO SOME OF THE FINER DETAILS, MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY ROTATES
TOWARDS THE CWA. THIS WILL BRING SOME MODEST HEIGHT FALLS DURING THE
AFTERNOON THAT WHEN COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING WILL LEAD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
AREA. MOVING INTO FRIDAY, WEAK, BROAD SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE
GULF ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE AND HELPS PULL SURFACE COLD FRONT
FURTHER SOUTH TO THE WEST OF THE AREA, BUT SURFACE MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER MS AND NE LA AND ALLOWS FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTIVE CHANCES INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODELS ACROSS THE ENSEMBLES
HAVE SOME DIFFERENT EVOLUTIONS FROM HERE, BUT MOST SEEM TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW THAT MOVES TO THE NORTH AND
BRINGS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO INTO THE AREA, WITH THE BEST CHANCES
OF SEEING MORE SURFACE BASED MOISTURE IN EASTERN MS. THIS ALIGNS
WITH RAIN CHANCES MOVING FORWARD, WHERE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SEEING
CONTINUED RAIN AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS
EASTERN MS, DECREASING TO THE WEST INTO NE LA AND SE AR.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S ON THURSDAY, COOLING FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO THE 70S AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE MID TO LOWER 60S.
LUSK
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
LIGHT RAIN IN SOUTH MS TO START THE PERIOD, AND PERHAPS SOME
ELSEWHERE DURING THE PERIOD, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN DIRECT IMPACTS
TO ANY TAF SITE WAS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. LOW STRATUS
INITIALLY PRODUCING A MIX OF MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS, WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THROUGH AT LEAST AROUND 06Z THURSDAY. THEN SOME
CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LOW STRATUS AND/OR BR TO REDUCE FLIGHT
CONDITIONS INTO THE IFR TO MVFR RANGE BY AROUND 12Z THURSDAY. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 80 63 82 63 / 50 20 70 40
MERIDIAN 79 63 81 61 / 60 20 70 40
VICKSBURG 80 63 82 63 / 40 10 50 30
HATTIESBURG 79 65 82 65 / 80 40 80 40
NATCHEZ 78 63 81 63 / 60 20 50 30
GREENVILLE 77 64 81 63 / 30 10 50 40
GREENWOOD 77 63 82 63 / 40 10 60 50
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
NF/SHV
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