388
FXUS64 KJAN 071931 CCA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
155 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
COASTAL MCS CONTINUES THIS EARLY AFTERNOON AND IS ALLOWING FOR
SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES NOW AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NOTABLE DRYING IS NOTED ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE WAVE THAT WILL SUPPORT CLEARING FROM W TO E FROM LATER
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. CLEARING THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO
GOOD COOLING AND POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME, WILL
MESSAGE PATCHY DENSE FOG AND HAVE THE EVENING SHIFT MONITOR FOR
ANY ADVISORY.
AS WE GO INTO THURSDAY AND THE WEEKEND, A BIT OF A COMPLEX PATTERN
EVOLUTION IS EXPECTED. THURSDAY WILL SEE MORE OF A SHEARED TROUGH
OVER THE AREA WITH EVOLUTION TO MORE OF A DIGGING FEATURE AND
BECOMING CLOSED OFF FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS EVOLUTION OF
THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY,
PRIMARILY AFTERNOON, ACROSS THE AREA. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY WILL BUILD (AROUND 2000 J/KG MUCAPE) ALONG WITH SOME
SUPPORTIVE LAPSE RATES. WHILE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ON INSTABILITY,
THE EXTRA ELEMENT IS THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. VALUES AROUND
50KTS WILL HELP POTENTIALLY PUSH A FEW CELLS TO ACHIEVE MORE AND
REACH SEVERE LEVELS. THE MARGINAL RISK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED, BUT FITS
BETTER AND SUPPORTS THE ISOLATED THREAT FROM A FEW STORMS. HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS. BEYOND LATE WEEK, THE BEST
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE SAT-MON. WE'RE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
HAZARDOUS WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD.
FOR TUE-WED, THE UPPER LOW WILL FEEL THE SHORTENING OF THE
TROUGH/RIDGE REGIME AND WILL EJECT OUT AND ALLOW FOR MORE OF A
RIDGING PATTERN TO TAKE SHAPE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ADDITIONALLY, DEEP LAYER DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE. ALSO,
INCREASING SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH A
RETURN TO 80S AND EVEN SOME 90S BY LATTER WEEK. /CME/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
LIGHT RAIN IN SOUTH MS TO START THE PERIOD, AND PERHAPS SOME
ELSEWHERE DURING THE PERIOD, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN DIRECT IMPACTS
TO ANY TAF SITE WAS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. LOW STRATUS
INITIALLY PRODUCING A MIX OF MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS, WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THROUGH AT LEAST AROUND 06Z THURSDAY. THEN SOME
CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LOW STRATUS AND/OR BR TO REDUCE FLIGHT
CONDITIONS INTO THE IFR TO MVFR RANGE BY AROUND 12Z THURSDAY. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 61 84 63 79 / 10 30 20 50
MERIDIAN 61 84 61 79 / 20 50 30 60
VICKSBURG 62 84 62 79 / 10 20 10 40
HATTIESBURG 63 86 64 83 / 30 60 30 70
NATCHEZ 61 83 63 78 / 20 30 10 40
GREENVILLE 63 81 62 76 / 10 20 10 30
GREENWOOD 63 83 62 78 / 10 30 20 50
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
CME/NF
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