265
FXUS64 KJAN 080200 AAB
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
900 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
REST OF TONIGHT...WHILE A STRAY SHOWER CAN'T BE RULED OUT, OVERALL,
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH CLEARING SKIES, LIGHT TO CALM WIND, DAMP
GROUND CONDITIONS, AND INCREASING MOISTURE, PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, WITH A FEW
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, WITH SOME LOW STRATUS
ALSO DEVELOPING TOWARDS DAY BREAK THURSDAY, LOOK FOR LOWS TONIGHT TO
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S. /19/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
COASTAL MCS CONTINUES THIS EARLY AFTERNOON AND IS ALLOWING FOR
SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES NOW AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NOTABLE DRYING IS NOTED ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE WAVE THAT WILL SUPPORT CLEARING FROM W TO E FROM LATER
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. CLEARING THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO
GOOD COOLING AND POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME, WILL
MESSAGE PATCHY DENSE FOG AND HAVE THE EVENING SHIFT MONITOR FOR
ANY ADVISORY.
AS WE GO INTO THURSDAY AND THE WEEKEND, A BIT OF A COMPLEX PATTERN
EVOLUTION IS EXPECTED. THURSDAY WILL SEE MORE OF A SHEARED TROUGH
OVER THE AREA WITH EVOLUTION TO MORE OF A DIGGING FEATURE AND
BECOMING CLOSED OFF FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS EVOLUTION OF
THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY,
PRIMARILY AFTERNOON, ACROSS THE AREA. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY WILL BUILD (AROUND 2000 J/KG MUCAPE) ALONG WITH SOME
SUPPORTIVE LAPSE RATES. WHILE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ON INSTABILITY,
THE EXTRA ELEMENT IS THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. VALUES AROUND
50KTS WILL HELP POTENTIALLY PUSH A FEW CELLS TO ACHIEVE MORE AND
REACH SEVERE LEVELS. THE MARGINAL RISK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED, BUT FITS
BETTER AND SUPPORTS THE ISOLATED THREAT FROM A FEW STORMS. HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS. BEYOND LATE WEEK, THE BEST
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE SAT-MON. WE'RE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
HAZARDOUS WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD.
FOR TUE-WED, THE UPPER LOW WILL FEEL THE SHORTENING OF THE
TROUGH/RIDGE REGIME AND WILL EJECT OUT AND ALLOW FOR MORE OF A
RIDGING PATTERN TO TAKE SHAPE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ADDITIONALLY, DEEP LAYER DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE. ALSO,
INCREASING SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH A
RETURN TO 80S AND EVEN SOME 90S BY LATTER WEEK. /CME/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
A MIX OF MVFR/VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE PREVAILING AT TAF SITES
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT, BUT WITH SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST, A
COMBINATION OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CATEGORIES
FALLING TO MVFR/IFR STATUS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON THURSDAY, AREAS SITES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR
CATEGORIES. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO CALM,
BUT WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 5-10 KNOTS LATE
THURSDAY MORNING. /19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 63 82 63 79 / 0 70 40 60
MERIDIAN 63 81 61 79 / 0 70 40 70
VICKSBURG 63 82 63 79 / 10 50 30 50
HATTIESBURG 65 82 65 81 / 10 80 40 80
NATCHEZ 63 81 63 78 / 10 50 30 50
GREENVILLE 64 81 63 76 / 10 50 40 50
GREENWOOD 63 82 63 78 / 10 60 50 60
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
19
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