458
FXUS64 KJAN 080629 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
129 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
REST OF TONIGHT...WHILE A STRAY SHOWER CAN'T BE RULED OUT, OVERALL,
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH CLEARING SKIES, LIGHT TO CALM WIND, DAMP
GROUND CONDITIONS, AND INCREASING MOISTURE, PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, WITH A FEW
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, WITH SOME LOW STRATUS
ALSO DEVELOPING TOWARDS DAY BREAK THURSDAY, LOOK FOR LOWS TONIGHT TO
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S. /19/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
COASTAL MCS CONTINUES THIS EARLY AFTERNOON AND IS ALLOWING FOR
SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES NOW AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NOTABLE DRYING IS NOTED ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE WAVE THAT WILL SUPPORT CLEARING FROM W TO E FROM LATER
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. CLEARING THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO
GOOD COOLING AND POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME, WILL
MESSAGE PATCHY DENSE FOG AND HAVE THE EVENING SHIFT MONITOR FOR
ANY ADVISORY.
AS WE GO INTO THURSDAY AND THE WEEKEND, A BIT OF A COMPLEX PATTERN
EVOLUTION IS EXPECTED. THURSDAY WILL SEE MORE OF A SHEARED TROUGH
OVER THE AREA WITH EVOLUTION TO MORE OF A DIGGING FEATURE AND
BECOMING CLOSED OFF FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS EVOLUTION OF
THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY,
PRIMARILY AFTERNOON, ACROSS THE AREA. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY WILL BUILD (AROUND 2000 J/KG MUCAPE) ALONG WITH SOME
SUPPORTIVE LAPSE RATES. WHILE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ON INSTABILITY,
THE EXTRA ELEMENT IS THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. VALUES AROUND
50KTS WILL HELP POTENTIALLY PUSH A FEW CELLS TO ACHIEVE MORE AND
REACH SEVERE LEVELS. THE MARGINAL RISK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED, BUT FITS
BETTER AND SUPPORTS THE ISOLATED THREAT FROM A FEW STORMS. HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS. BEYOND LATE WEEK, THE BEST
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE SAT-MON. WE'RE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
HAZARDOUS WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD.
FOR TUE-WED, THE UPPER LOW WILL FEEL THE SHORTENING OF THE
TROUGH/RIDGE REGIME AND WILL EJECT OUT AND ALLOW FOR MORE OF A
RIDGING PATTERN TO TAKE SHAPE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ADDITIONALLY, DEEP LAYER DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE. ALSO,
INCREASING SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH A
RETURN TO 80S AND EVEN SOME 90S BY LATTER WEEK. /CME/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
LIFR VSBYS WERE ALREADY BEING OBSERVED IN THE NORTH AND CNTRL TAF
SITES. LIFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
AND PREVAIL THROUGH 13Z BEFORE BEGINNING TO IMPROVE. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE BY 17Z AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
WL BE PSBL AFTER 22Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 63 79 60 76 / 40 60 30 50
MERIDIAN 61 79 59 77 / 40 70 40 60
VICKSBURG 63 79 61 75 / 30 50 20 40
HATTIESBURG 65 81 61 80 / 40 80 30 60
NATCHEZ 63 78 61 73 / 30 50 20 40
GREENVILLE 63 76 59 74 / 40 50 30 30
GREENWOOD 63 78 60 77 / 50 60 30 40
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
19/CME/22/
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