856
FXUS64 KJAN 081923
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
223 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
THROUGH TONIGHT:
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHERE MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH
FOR SOME UNCAPPED CONVECTION. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR, THROUGH THE EVENING, BUT STORMS IN THOSE AREAS TO THE
NORTHEAST COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DECENT DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR TO ORGANIZE UPDRAFTS. A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THIS EVENING. RESIDUAL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT
COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING,
HOWEVER HREF PROBABILITIES ARE FAIRLY LOW, AND LOW PWAT VALUES AT
PRESENT SUGGEST ONLY SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP IN LOW-LYING AREAS.
FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CUTTING OFF
FROM BUCKLED FLOW OVER THE GULF COAST. RETURNING MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH TOMORROW COULD SUPPORT SOME ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI, AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
A RESULTING REX BLOCK PATTERN INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR HOW
QUICKLY THE CUTOFF LOW WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AGAIN, BUT GUIDANCE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT FOR SHOWING THE LOW MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST AROUND
TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE U.S. WEST
COAST. WHILE THIS LOW SPINS OVER OUR GULF COAST REGION, EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER, CHANCES FOR RAIN (ESPECIALLY FARTHER
EAST), AND TEMPERATURES TO LOCK IN NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR MID MAY.
ONCE THE LOW BEGINS TO PUSH NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE EFFECTS OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING OUT
OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO 90S COULD BECOME
WIDESPREAD BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. /NF/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z FRIDAY. CHANCES
FOR PATCHY BR OR FG WILL INTRODUCE MVFR TO IFR PROBABILITIES
THROUGH 15Z, WITH LIFTING AND MIXING TO SCATTERED AND BROKEN MVFR
CLOUD DECK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. /EC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 62 80 61 74 / 10 40 30 30
MERIDIAN 61 81 59 72 / 10 40 30 50
VICKSBURG 62 79 61 73 / 10 40 20 30
HATTIESBURG 65 83 62 77 / 20 60 40 60
NATCHEZ 63 78 62 72 / 10 50 20 30
GREENVILLE 62 76 59 72 / 10 20 10 10
GREENWOOD 61 78 59 75 / 10 30 10 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
NF/EC
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