913
FXUS64 KJAN 082335
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
635 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
THROUGH TONIGHT:
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHERE MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH
FOR SOME UNCAPPED CONVECTION. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR, THROUGH THE EVENING, BUT STORMS IN THOSE AREAS TO THE
NORTHEAST COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DECENT DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR TO ORGANIZE UPDRAFTS. A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THIS EVENING. RESIDUAL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT
COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING,
HOWEVER HREF PROBABILITIES ARE FAIRLY LOW, AND LOW PWAT VALUES AT
PRESENT SUGGEST ONLY SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP IN LOW-LYING AREAS.
FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CUTTING OFF
FROM BUCKLED FLOW OVER THE GULF COAST. RETURNING MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH TOMORROW COULD SUPPORT SOME ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI, AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
A RESULTING REX BLOCK PATTERN INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR HOW
QUICKLY THE CUTOFF LOW WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AGAIN, BUT GUIDANCE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT FOR SHOWING THE LOW MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST AROUND
TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE U.S. WEST
COAST. WHILE THIS LOW SPINS OVER OUR GULF COAST REGION, EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER, CHANCES FOR RAIN (ESPECIALLY FARTHER
EAST), AND TEMPERATURES TO LOCK IN NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR MID MAY.
ONCE THE LOW BEGINS TO PUSH NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE EFFECTS OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING OUT
OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO 90S COULD BECOME
WIDESPREAD BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. /NF/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
STILL SEEING SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN AIRSPACE AS WELL AS OUR FAR
SOUTHWEST AIRSPACE EARLY THIS EVENING BUT GIVEN THE COVERAGE, WILL
HANDLE THIS WITH AMDS IF NECESSARY. SHOULD SEE THIS CU FIELD
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME FOG FORMING IN ADVANCE OF A VERY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AFTER
MIDNIGHT TOWARDS THE PREDAWN HOURS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN AIRSPACE. CANNOT RULE OUT A RETURN TO POST FRONTAL
MVFR CEILINGS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PRE-FRONTAL MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
WHERE THE LOWER VSBYS COULD EXIST. AFTER SUNRISE, SHOULD SEE A
GRADUAL RISE IN CEILINGS BUT DID INTRODUCE VCSH OR VCTS FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LOW
TROUGH OVHD AND DAYTIME HEATING.
BERRY/SHV
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 63 79 61 76 / 20 50 20 50
MERIDIAN 61 79 59 77 / 30 60 40 60
VICKSBURG 62 79 61 75 / 10 40 20 40
HATTIESBURG 64 83 62 80 / 30 70 30 60
NATCHEZ 63 78 61 73 / 10 40 20 40
GREENVILLE 62 76 60 74 / 10 30 20 30
GREENWOOD 62 78 60 77 / 20 50 20 40
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
/SHV
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