675
FXUS64 KJAN 240625 AAC
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
125 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2025
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MANAGED TO BUILD NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING, BUT THIS ACTIVITY HAS
JUST ABOUT DIMINISHED AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHES NORTH INTO
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS SHOULD BE QUIET FOR THE MOST PART WITH SOME PATCHY AREAS OF
FOG POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. /EC/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:
ANOTHER QUIET EVENING IS EXPECTED AS THE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BRING MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE
AREA DUE TO UPPER-LVL NORTHWEST FLOW. LATEST CAM MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT IN A REMNANT MCS MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT TOWARDS THE ARKLAMISS REGION. THERE IS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THAT THE MCS MAY HOLD TOGETHER AS IT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD,
HOWEVER, THE MCS STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DISSIPATE AND NOT RE-
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
SUSTAINABILITY, A SLIGHT (2 OUT OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WAS
ADDED BY SPC AND THE A MARGINAL (1 OUT OF 5) RISK WAS EXPANDED
SOUTHWARD. HWO GRAPHICS WILL BE UPDATED WITH THE CHANGES. PRIMARY
HAZARDS EXPECTED ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WITH THE WEATHER
PATTERN REMAINING UNCHANGED FOR SUNDAY, A MARGINAL (1 OUT OF 5) RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE SHOULD STORMS BECOME ELEVATED
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY:
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ARE ANTICIPATED TO PUSH THROUGH
AREA IN THE PERTURBED NW FLOW REGIME AND INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE AREA. ONGOING SHOWER/T-STORM CHANCES
ARE LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON (60-85% PROBABILITY). TIMING IS MAINLY
AFTERNOON, BUT THERE'S UNCERTAINTY AS ANY EVOLVING MCS COULD REACH
THE AREA AT ANY TIME. ADDITIONALLY, SOME STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE
LIMITS DURING THIS PERIOD; HOWEVER, TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO HAVE
MUCH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME ON SPECIFICS. LASTLY, WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE ON HEAVY RAINFALL AS THERE'S OPPORTUNITY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA TO SEE A FEW ROUNDS OF STORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AGAIN, TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO GET INTO SPECIFICS, BUT SOME
POTENTIAL DOES EXIST. /SW/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY TO PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 12Z SATURDAY,
HOWEVER SOME FG NEAR KMEI WILL PERSIST UNTIL ANY LOW CLOUDS AND BR
OR FG LIFT AND MIX. CHANCES FOR SHRA OR TSRA WILL INCREASE BETWEEN
15Z-21Z. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 72 91 73 88 / 10 30 30 70
MERIDIAN 69 91 71 90 / 10 40 30 70
VICKSBURG 72 92 73 87 / 0 30 30 70
HATTIESBURG 72 93 73 92 / 10 30 20 40
NATCHEZ 72 91 73 87 / 0 20 20 50
GREENVILLE 72 90 72 82 / 10 40 60 90
GREENWOOD 71 90 72 85 / 20 40 60 90
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/SW/NF
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