416
FXUS64 KJAN 240924
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
424 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
TODAY & TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH MID-DAY...
FOR THE MORNING HOURS EXPECT BENIGN WEATHER WITH A CHANCES OF PATCHY
FOG BEFORE SUNRISE IN THE HATTIESBURG. DURING THE DAY, LATE-SPRING
TEMPERATUES CLIMBING TO 90F FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 65-70F.
SATURDAY-MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...
BY THIS POINT A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF
OVER THE REGION WHICH TYPICALLY PORTENDS ACTIVE AND SOMETIMES
DANGEROUS WEATHER FOR OUR AREA. UPSTREAM THERE ARE ALREADY LONG-
LIVED MCS THAT HAVE MANAGED TO RAVAGE OKLAHOMA AND PLY NORTHERN
ARKANSAS WITH HIGH RAIN RATES. CONSEQUENTLY, THAT GENERAL SET UP IS
EXPECTED TO STAY IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WHICH WILL ELEVATE
OUR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER THE WEEKEND'S AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
DECENT INSTABILITY REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE ORGANIZED
UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WILL HAVE TWO EVOLUTIONARY BRANCHES [1)
MCS COULD SUSTAIN ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AND/OR REDEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. 2) COMPLETELY DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING WITH NO
AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT.] WHICH WILL IN TURN HAVE TWO DISPARATE
IMPACTS FOR US: IN THE EVENT THAT THE UPSTREAM ACTIVITY SUSTAINS IT
WILL DROP DOWN THROUGH OUR NORTHERN REACHES AND CAUSE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS WITH EMBEDDED CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL. IN CONTRAST, SHOULD THE UPSTREAM ACTIVITY DISSIPATE
THERE WILL BE RELATIVELY FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND INSTEAD A SMATTERING
OF SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON. ADDRESSING THE CONFIDENCE, CAM MODELS
DO SEEM TO BE CONVERGING TOWARDS THE FORMER EVOLUTIONARY BRANCH AS
THE PRIMARY POSSIBILITY WHICH IS HAS CAUSED SPC, IN COLLABORATION
WITH LOCAL WEATHER OFFICES, TO ISSUE A SLIGHT (2 OUT OF 5) RISK FOR
AREAS IN THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA; AND A MARGINAL (1 OUT OF
5) RISK FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF BROOKHAVEN MS THROUGH WINNSBORO LA.
MONDAY AFTERNOON...
SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT GUIDANCES, WE
HAVE DECIDED TO MESSAGE A SLIGHT (1 OUT OF 5) FOR THE CWA ON MONDAY,
AS REMNANTS FROM THE MCSS MENTIONED ABOVE COULD HOLD ON FOR ANOTHER
DAY.
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...
MOVING FORWARD WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING
ROBUST CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND THUS SHUNT A DECENT AMOUNT OF OUR
LATENT ATMOSPHERIC ENERGY.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, SO
VIGILANCE IS ADVISED AS THERE IS ALWAYS A POSSIBILITY FOR STORMS TO
OVERACHIEVE WITHIN A NW REGIME. THAT BEING SAID, A FEW DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA, AND THOSE IMPULSES
WILL INTERACT WITH A BOUNDARY/AREA OF CONVERGENCE IN THE AREA. THESE
IMPULSES, AIDED BY DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL PEAK BY
MID AFTERNOON, AND WANE BY SUNSET. MCSS COULD DROP DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT BUT ANY POTENTIONAL SEVERE IMPACTS SHOULD BE
MITIGATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED OVERTURNING.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT HEAVY RAIN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK, AT THIS POINT WE WILL ERR CONSERVATIVELY WITH
GRAPHICS/MESSAGING SIMLPY BECAUSE SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN QPFS DON'T
QUITE REACH THRESHOLDS, BUT MESO/MICROSCALE DYNAMICS COULD DRIVE
RAIN RATES UP HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING./OAJ/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY TO PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 12Z SATURDAY,
HOWEVER SOME FG NEAR KMEI WILL PERSIST UNTIL ANY LOW CLOUDS AND BR
OR FG LIFT AND MIX. CHANCES FOR SHRA OR TSRA WILL INCREASE BETWEEN
15Z-21Z. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 91 70 91 72 / 40 20 40 30
MERIDIAN 90 68 91 70 / 50 10 40 20
VICKSBURG 91 71 92 72 / 30 10 30 20
HATTIESBURG 92 72 93 72 / 40 30 30 20
NATCHEZ 91 71 91 72 / 20 10 30 20
GREENVILLE 86 70 89 72 / 60 10 40 50
GREENWOOD 86 70 90 72 / 60 20 50 50
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
OAJ/OAJ/NF
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