066
FXUS64 KJAN 241800 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
100 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
A COMPLEX OF STORMS IS BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE IN THE ARKLATEX THIS
MORNING WITH REMNANTS OF A DECAYING COMPLEX IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS. A
FEW CORES HAVE ALREADY POKED UP THIS MORNING IN FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, A TESTAMENT TO THE PREEXISTING ENVIRONMENT. RAP
ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZATION AND
MAINTENANCE INTO OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE QUICK MOVING MCS BUT
THERE IS ALSO A LOW THREAT FOR HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. HAVE
UPDATED THE GRAPHIC TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AS THE
QUICK MOVING MCS, SHOULD IT BE WELL ORGANIZED ENOUGH, COULD
MAINTAIN INTO THESE AREAS./SAS/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
TODAY & TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH MID-DAY...
FOR THE MORNING HOURS EXPECT BENIGN WEATHER WITH A CHANCES OF PATCHY
FOG BEFORE SUNRISE IN THE HATTIESBURG. DURING THE DAY, LATE-SPRING
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO 90F FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM
65-70F.
SATURDAY-MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...
BY THIS POINT A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF
OVER THE REGION WHICH TYPICALLY PORTENDS ACTIVE AND SOMETIMES
DANGEROUS WEATHER FOR OUR AREA. UPSTREAM THERE ARE ALREADY LONG-
LIVED MCS THAT HAVE MANAGED TO RAVAGE OKLAHOMA AND PLY NORTHERN
ARKANSAS WITH HIGH RAIN RATES. CONSEQUENTLY, THAT GENERAL SET UP IS
EXPECTED TO STAY IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WHICH WILL ELEVATE
OUR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER THE WEEKEND'S AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
DECENT INSTABILITY REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE ORGANIZED
UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WILL HAVE TWO EVOLUTIONARY BRANCHES [1)
MCS COULD SUSTAIN ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AND/OR REDEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. 2) COMPLETELY DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING WITH NO
AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT.] WHICH WILL IN TURN HAVE TWO DISPARATE
IMPACTS FOR US: IN THE EVENT THAT THE UPSTREAM ACTIVITY SUSTAINS IT
WILL DROP DOWN THROUGH OUR NORTHERN REACHES AND CAUSE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS WITH EMBEDDED CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL. IN CONTRAST, SHOULD THE UPSTREAM ACTIVITY DISSIPATE
THERE WILL BE RELATIVELY FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND INSTEAD A SMATTERING
OF SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON. ADDRESSING THE CONFIDENCE, CAM MODELS
DO SEEM TO BE CONVERGING TOWARDS THE FORMER EVOLUTIONARY BRANCH AS
THE PRIMARY POSSIBILITY WHICH IS HAS CAUSED SPC, IN COLLABORATION
WITH LOCAL WEATHER OFFICES, TO ISSUE A SLIGHT (2 OUT OF 5) RISK FOR
AREAS IN THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA; AND A MARGINAL (1 OUT OF
5) RISK FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF BROOKHAVEN MS THROUGH WINNSBORO LA.
MONDAY AFTERNOON...
SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT GUIDANCES, WE
HAVE DECIDED TO MESSAGE A SLIGHT (1 OUT OF 5) FOR THE CWA ON MONDAY,
AS REMNANTS FROM THE MCSS MENTIONED ABOVE COULD HOLD ON FOR ANOTHER
DAY.
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...
MOVING FORWARD WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING
ROBUST CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND THUS SHUNT A DECENT AMOUNT OF OUR
LATENT ATMOSPHERIC ENERGY.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, SO
VIGILANCE IS ADVISED AS THERE IS ALWAYS A POSSIBILITY FOR STORMS TO
OVERACHIEVE WITHIN A NW REGIME. THAT BEING SAID, A FEW DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA, AND THOSE IMPULSES
WILL INTERACT WITH A BOUNDARY/AREA OF CONVERGENCE IN THE AREA. THESE
IMPULSES, AIDED BY DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL PEAK BY
MID AFTERNOON, AND WANE BY SUNSET. MCSS COULD DROP DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT BUT ANY SEVERE IMPACTS SHOULD BE MITIGATED
BY THE AFOREMENTIONED OVERTURNING.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT HEAVY RAIN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK, AT THIS POINT WE WILL ERR CONSERVATIVELY WITH
GRAPHICS/MESSAGING SIMPLY BECAUSE SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN QPF DON'T
QUITE REACH THRESHOLDS, BUT MESO/MICROSCALE DYNAMICS COULD DRIVE
RAIN RATES UP HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING./OAJ/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. AN INCREASE IN STORM
COVERAGE WILL MOVE IN WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR, WITH POTENTIAL STORM
COMPLEX THAT MAY PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MOST TAF SITES. IF
THIS EVOLUTION OCCURS, VARIABLE CEILINGS &/OR VSBY ARE LIKELY WITH
GUSTS >35-50MPH IN THE STRONGEST OF STORMS. ONSET TIMING IS
MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 24/19Z-22Z SATURDAY AT GLH & GWO, 24/22Z
SATURDAY TO 25/01Z SUNDAY AT GTR, JAN, HKS, MEI & HEZ & THROUGH
25/02-03Z AT PIB & HBG. SHRA & TSRA COVERAGE DWINDLES AFTERWARDS.
ONSET OF DETERIORATING FLIGHT CATEGORIES IS LIKELY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF IFR-LIFR STRATUS &/OR MVFR TO IFR VSBY AT MEI, PIB, HBG
& HEZ AFTER 25/08-11Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND
25/15-16Z SUNDAY BEFORE VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES PREVAIL IN THE
WAKE. /DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 70 91 72 89 / 20 40 30 70
MERIDIAN 68 91 70 90 / 10 40 20 70
VICKSBURG 71 92 72 89 / 10 30 20 60
HATTIESBURG 72 93 72 91 / 30 30 20 50
NATCHEZ 71 91 72 89 / 10 30 20 50
GREENVILLE 70 89 72 84 / 10 40 50 80
GREENWOOD 70 90 72 86 / 20 50 50 80
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SAS20/OAJ/DC
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