155
FXUS64 KJAN 241825
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
125 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
THROUGH NEXT WEEK...
AN ORGANIZED MCS IS PROGGED TO PROPAGATE ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A PRIMARY THREAT
FOR WIND AND SECONDARY LOW THREAT FOR HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.
THE ENVIRONMENT DOES APPEAR PRIMED FOR THE ORGANIZED COMPLEX TO
MAINTAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING, INCLUDING PORTIONS
OF THE PINE BELT. THE PERTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT SUPPORTS
THESE COMPLEXES IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
IF NOT MID NEXT WEEK. THE MEANDERING SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH
UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP RAIN AND STORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME ORGANIZED DEPENDING
ON THE ENVIRONMENT WHICH COULD BECOME SEVERE ANY GIVEN DAY, BUT THIS
POSSIBILITY IS DEPENDENT ON DAY TO DAY MESOSCALE FEATURES AND
ENVIRONMENTS.
BY LATE NEXT WEEK, THE LARGER SCALE LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH AND
MAY BRING AN AIRMASS CHANGE, WHICH WOULD DECREASE OUR CHANCES FOR
RAIN AND STORMS. BUT IT IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY THAT THE FRONT STALLS
BEFORE ANY SUCH AIRMASS CHANGE COULD OCCUR, IN WHICH CASE THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN. I WILL NOTE THAT WITH THE PREVIOUS
ROUNDS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER, GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGY WITH LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE. SO IT IS REASONABLE TO THINK
THAT RAIN AND STORMS WILL STICK AROUND, WITH SOUTHEAST RIDGE
REMAINING WEAK.
THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED FROM THESE STORMS OVER THE NEXT
WEEK COULD PUSH US INTO RECORD TERRITORY FOR THE MONTH OF MAY.
LOCALIZING FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH HEAVIER RAIN THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK./SAS/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. AN INCREASE IN STORM
COVERAGE WILL MOVE IN WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR, WITH POTENTIAL STORM
COMPLEX THAT MAY PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MOST TAF SITES. IF
THIS EVOLUTION OCCURS, VARIABLE CEILINGS &/OR VSBY ARE LIKELY WITH
GUSTS >35-50MPH IN THE STRONGEST OF STORMS. ONSET TIMING IS
MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 24/19Z-22Z SATURDAY AT GLH & GWO, 24/22Z
SATURDAY TO 25/01Z SUNDAY AT GTR, JAN, HKS, MEI & HEZ & THROUGH
25/02-03Z AT PIB & HBG. SHRA & TSRA COVERAGE DWINDLES AFTERWARDS.
ONSET OF DETERIORATING FLIGHT CATEGORIES IS LIKELY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF IFR-LIFR STRATUS &/OR MVFR TO IFR VSBY AT MEI, PIB, HBG
& HEZ AFTER 25/08-11Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND
25/15-16Z SUNDAY BEFORE VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES PREVAIL IN THE
WAKE. /DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 70 91 72 89 / 20 40 30 70
MERIDIAN 68 91 70 90 / 10 40 20 70
VICKSBURG 71 92 72 89 / 10 30 20 60
HATTIESBURG 72 93 72 91 / 30 30 20 50
NATCHEZ 71 91 72 89 / 10 30 20 50
GREENVILLE 70 89 72 84 / 10 40 50 80
GREENWOOD 70 90 72 86 / 20 50 50 80
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SAS20/SAS20/DC
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