488
FXUS64 KJAN 250005 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
705 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
THROUGH NEXT WEEK...
AN ORGANIZED MCS IS PROGGED TO PROPAGATE ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A PRIMARY THREAT
FOR WIND AND SECONDARY LOW THREAT FOR HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.
THE ENVIRONMENT DOES APPEAR PRIMED FOR THE ORGANIZED COMPLEX TO
MAINTAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING, INCLUDING PORTIONS
OF THE PINE BELT. THE PERTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT SUPPORTS
THESE COMPLEXES IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
IF NOT MID NEXT WEEK. THE MEANDERING SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH
UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP RAIN AND STORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME ORGANIZED DEPENDING
ON THE ENVIRONMENT WHICH COULD BECOME SEVERE ANY GIVEN DAY, BUT THIS
POSSIBILITY IS DEPENDENT ON DAY TO DAY MESOSCALE FEATURES AND
ENVIRONMENTS.
BY LATE NEXT WEEK, THE LARGER SCALE LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH AND
MAY BRING AN AIRMASS CHANGE, WHICH WOULD DECREASE OUR CHANCES FOR
RAIN AND STORMS. BUT IT IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY THAT THE FRONT STALLS
BEFORE ANY SUCH AIRMASS CHANGE COULD OCCUR, IN WHICH CASE THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN. I WILL NOTE THAT WITH THE PREVIOUS
ROUNDS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER, GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGY WITH LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE. SO IT IS REASONABLE TO THINK
THAT RAIN AND STORMS WILL STICK AROUND, WITH SOUTHEAST RIDGE
REMAINING WEAK.
THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED FROM THESE STORMS OVER THE NEXT
WEEK COULD PUSH US INTO RECORD TERRITORY FOR THE MONTH OF MAY.
LOCALIZING FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH HEAVIER RAIN THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK./SAS/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
A LINE OF TSRA WILL MOVE ACROSS PIB-HBG THROUGH 02Z AND MAY RESULT
IN LOWER FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS BUT ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WL
PREVAIL UNTIL AFTER 06Z WHEN MVFR/IFR CIGS WL BEGIN DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. MVFR/IFR CIGS WL DEVELOP CNTRL AND
SOUTH AFTER 09Z AND PREVAIL UNTIL AFTER 15Z. AFTER 15Z CONDITIONS
WL IMPROVE TO VFR AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. A
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS IN THE NORTH WHERE SCATTERED TSRA MAY AFFECT
THE TAF SITES AFTER 21Z. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 70 92 72 90 / 40 30 30 70
MERIDIAN 68 92 70 91 / 40 30 30 70
VICKSBURG 71 92 72 90 / 20 30 30 70
HATTIESBURG 72 94 73 93 / 70 20 20 40
NATCHEZ 71 90 72 89 / 40 20 10 50
GREENVILLE 70 89 71 84 / 10 40 60 90
GREENWOOD 70 90 71 87 / 10 40 60 90
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SAS20/22
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