770
FXUS64 KJAN 250706 AAC
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
206 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
THE LAST OF TODAY'S MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WAS NOTED ON RADAR
DISSIPATING OVER OUR SOUTHEAST MOST ZONES. ALTHOUGH NO ADDITIONAL
SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT, ATTENTION WILL RETURN TO
OUR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE A STALLED BOUNDARY MEANDERS THROUGH
SUNDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS STILL SUGGESTS SOME WEAK REDEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE SKIRTING OUR NORTHERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. EARLIER
CONVECTION RAIN-COOLED MUCH OF OUR CWA. THERE HAS BEEN SOME
RECOVERY OF TEMPERATURES, INCLUDING DEW POINT TEMPERATURES.
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CHANCE OF RAIN AND TO TEMPERATURES WERE MADE
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM BUT THE OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
/22/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
THROUGH NEXT WEEK...
AN ORGANIZED MCS IS PROGGED TO PROPAGATE ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A PRIMARY THREAT
FOR WIND AND SECONDARY LOW THREAT FOR HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.
THE ENVIRONMENT DOES APPEAR PRIMED FOR THE ORGANIZED COMPLEX TO
MAINTAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING, INCLUDING PORTIONS
OF THE PINE BELT. THE PERTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT SUPPORTS
THESE COMPLEXES IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
IF NOT MID NEXT WEEK. THE MEANDERING SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH
UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP RAIN AND STORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME ORGANIZED DEPENDING
ON THE ENVIRONMENT WHICH COULD BECOME SEVERE ANY GIVEN DAY, BUT THIS
POSSIBILITY IS DEPENDENT ON DAY TO DAY MESOSCALE FEATURES AND
ENVIRONMENTS.
BY LATE NEXT WEEK, THE LARGER SCALE LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH AND
MAY BRING AN AIRMASS CHANGE, WHICH WOULD DECREASE OUR CHANCES FOR
RAIN AND STORMS. BUT IT IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY THAT THE FRONT STALLS
BEFORE ANY SUCH AIRMASS CHANGE COULD OCCUR, IN WHICH CASE THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN. I WILL NOTE THAT WITH THE PREVIOUS
ROUNDS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER, GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGY WITH LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE. SO IT IS REASONABLE TO THINK
THAT RAIN AND STORMS WILL STICK AROUND, WITH SOUTHEAST RIDGE
REMAINING WEAK.
THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED FROM THESE STORMS OVER THE NEXT
WEEK COULD PUSH US INTO RECORD TERRITORY FOR THE MONTH OF MAY.
LOCALIZING FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH HEAVIER RAIN THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK./SAS/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 144 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
LOW STRATUS TO CAUSE MVFR CEILINGS OR LOWER THROUGH THE 15Z-18Z
TIME FRAME, WITH IMPROVEMENT TO PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS BY 18Z.
SCATTERED SHRA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND THEN A SQUALL
LINE OF TSRA EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN AROUND 20Z-04Z TIME FRAME. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 72 90 72 86 / 30 70 50 90
MERIDIAN 70 91 70 88 / 30 70 50 80
VICKSBURG 72 90 72 86 / 30 70 50 90
HATTIESBURG 73 93 74 91 / 20 40 30 70
NATCHEZ 72 89 72 86 / 10 50 30 80
GREENVILLE 71 84 71 81 / 60 90 70 90
GREENWOOD 71 87 70 83 / 60 90 70 90
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/SAS20/NF
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