568
FXUS64 KJAN 250929
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
429 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 429 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
THE DAY SHOULD START OUT RELATIVELY QUIET WITH NARY A SHOWER IN THE
SKY. AS THE SUN CROSSES ITS ZENITH, HOWEVER, EXPECT SHOWERS TO CREEP
INTO THE NORTHERN REACHES, SPREADING SOUTHWARDS. BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS EXPECT A SMATTERING OF THOSE SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE CWA, WITH
MORE INTENSE CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH HIGHWAY 82 CAUSED BY AN MCS
DROPPING DOWN OUT OF ARKANSAS. THE OVERALL IMPACTS AND SETUP ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MORE OR LESS IDENTICAL TO YESTERDAY: AN ORGANIZED MCS
IS PROGGED TO PROPAGATE ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A PRIMARY THREAT FOR WIND AND
SECONDARY LOW THREAT FOR HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. THE
ENVIRONMENT DOES APPEAR PRIMED FOR THE ORGANIZED COMPLEX TO MAINTAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING, INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE
PINE BELT. THE PERTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT SUPPORTS THESE
COMPLEXES IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO AT LEAST EARLY THIS WEEK IF NOT
MID WEEK. THE STALLED BOUNDARY ALONG WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL
KEEP RAIN AND STORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK
AHEAD. SOME STORMS HAVE A CHANCE OF ORGANIZING DEPENDING ON THE
ENVIRONMENT WHICH COULD BECOME SEVERE ANY GIVEN DAY, BUT THIS
POSSIBILITY IS DEPENDENT ON DAY TO DAY MESO AND MICROSCALE FEATURES
AND ENVIRONMENTS.
BY LATE THIS WEEK, THE LARGER SCALE LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS FURTHER
SOUTH AND MAY BRING A REGIME CHANGE, IN TURN DECREASING OUR CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND STORMS. BUT THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY THAT THE FRONT
STALLS BEFORE ANY SUCH AIR MASS CHANGE COULD OCCUR, IN WHICH CASE
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN. ITS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT WITH
THE PREVIOUS ROUNDS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
TREND TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY WHICH MEANS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
AIR MASS. IT IS THUS REASONABLE TO CONCLUDE THAT RAIN AND STORMS
WILL PREVAIL, WITH A WEAK RIDGE LINGERING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
FINALLY, WE ARE GOING TO REITERATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE WEEK DUE TO CONTINUED RAINFALL AND SATURATED
SOIL CONDITIONS, LEADING TO POOR PRECIPITABLE INFILTRATION.
THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED FROM THESE STORMS OVER THE NEXT
WEEK COULD PUSH US INTO RECORD TERRITORY FOR THE MONTH OF MAY.
LOCALIZING FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH HEAVIER RAIN THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK. /OAJ/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 144 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
LOW STRATUS TO CAUSE MVFR CEILINGS OR LOWER THROUGH THE 15Z-18Z
TIME FRAME, WITH IMPROVEMENT TO PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS BY 18Z.
SCATTERED SHRA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND THEN A SQUALL
LINE OF TSRA EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN AROUND 20Z-04Z TIME FRAME. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 92 71 89 72 / 40 40 60 40
MERIDIAN 91 69 90 70 / 40 30 70 40
VICKSBURG 92 71 89 71 / 40 40 60 40
HATTIESBURG 94 72 92 74 / 30 30 40 20
NATCHEZ 91 71 89 71 / 30 20 50 30
GREENVILLE 89 70 82 70 / 50 60 90 70
GREENWOOD 89 70 85 70 / 50 60 90 70
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
OAJ/OAJ/NF
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