534
FXUS64 KJAN 251226 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
726 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 429 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
THE DAY SHOULD START OUT RELATIVELY QUIET WITH NARY A SHOWER IN THE
SKY. AS THE SUN CROSSES ITS ZENITH, HOWEVER, EXPECT SHOWERS TO CREEP
INTO THE NORTHERN REACHES, SPREADING SOUTHWARDS. BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS EXPECT A SMATTERING OF THOSE SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE CWA, WITH
MORE INTENSE CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH HIGHWAY 82 CAUSED BY AN MCS
DROPPING DOWN OUT OF ARKANSAS. THE OVERALL IMPACTS AND SETUP ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MORE OR LESS IDENTICAL TO YESTERDAY: AN ORGANIZED MCS
IS PROGGED TO PROPAGATE ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A PRIMARY THREAT FOR WIND AND
SECONDARY LOW THREAT FOR HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. THE
ENVIRONMENT DOES APPEAR PRIMED FOR THE ORGANIZED COMPLEX TO MAINTAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING, INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE
PINE BELT. THE PERTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT SUPPORTS THESE
COMPLEXES IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO AT LEAST EARLY THIS WEEK IF NOT
MID WEEK. THE STALLED BOUNDARY ALONG WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL
KEEP RAIN AND STORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK
AHEAD. SOME STORMS HAVE A CHANCE OF ORGANIZING DEPENDING ON THE
ENVIRONMENT WHICH COULD BECOME SEVERE ANY GIVEN DAY, BUT THIS
POSSIBILITY IS DEPENDENT ON DAY TO DAY MESO AND MICROSCALE FEATURES
AND ENVIRONMENTS.
BY LATE THIS WEEK, THE LARGER SCALE LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS FURTHER
SOUTH AND MAY BRING A REGIME CHANGE, IN TURN DECREASING OUR CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND STORMS. BUT THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY THAT THE FRONT
STALLS BEFORE ANY SUCH AIR MASS CHANGE COULD OCCUR, IN WHICH CASE
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN. ITS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT WITH
THE PREVIOUS ROUNDS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
TREND TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY WHICH MEANS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
AIR MASS. IT IS THUS REASONABLE TO CONCLUDE THAT RAIN AND STORMS
WILL PREVAIL, WITH A WEAK RIDGE LINGERING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
FINALLY, WE ARE GOING TO REITERATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE WEEK DUE TO CONTINUED RAINFALL AND SATURATED
SOIL CONDITIONS, LEADING TO POOR PRECIPITABLE INFILTRATION.
THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED FROM THESE STORMS OVER THE NEXT
WEEK COULD PUSH US INTO RECORD TERRITORY FOR THE MONTH OF MAY.
LOCALIZING FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH HEAVIER RAIN THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK. /OAJ/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 724 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
AREAS OF LOW STRATUS HAVE CAUSED SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE
FORECAST AREA, WITH IMPROVEMENT TO PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY AROUND 16Z AT ALL SITES. SHRA AND TSRA CHANCES WILL
INCREASE IN THE AREA BY AROUND 20Z, WITH A POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 21Z-03Z TIME FRAME.
ADDITIONAL MVFR CEILINGS OR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z MONDAY.
/NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 92 71 89 72 / 50 30 60 40
MERIDIAN 91 69 90 70 / 50 40 70 40
VICKSBURG 92 71 89 71 / 50 30 60 40
HATTIESBURG 94 72 92 74 / 40 20 40 20
NATCHEZ 91 71 89 71 / 40 20 50 30
GREENVILLE 89 70 82 70 / 70 70 90 70
GREENWOOD 89 70 85 70 / 70 70 90 70
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
OAJ/NF
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