369
FXUS64 KJAN 251852 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
152 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
REST OF TODAY...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS & STORM ACTIVITY, WITH ORGANIZED COMPLEX,
IS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING. MORNING UPPER AIR & SFC
ANALYSIS & MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THE REGION ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH STALLED SFC
BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LOW-
LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION OF 340-360K SFC THETA E & >340K THETA E AT
925-850MB LAYER IS AIDING IN FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS, WITH
NEARLY +2500-3500 J/KG ML/SBCAPE & >1000 J/KG OF DCAPE. PERTURBED
WESTERLY FLOW AT 500MB IS AIDING IN SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY, WHICH
IS INDUCING EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
OZARKS. THIS IS PROGGED TO SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY & MOVE
EITHER AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OR OUTFLOW/COLD POOL
BOUNDARY INTO THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR AROUND PEAK INSOLATION TIME.
WITH NEARLY 25-35KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE 0-6KM LAYER, ANY
STORMS THAT INITIATE PRIOR OR ALONG A MORNING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
SHOULD GROW UPSCALE AND PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD. THE ONLY CAVEAT IS
LOW-LEVEL BULK SHEAR VECTORS ARE SOUTHWESTERLY, WHICH COULD
DECREASE BALANCE OF COLD POOLS & SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE HIGHEST
SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER, SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, THIS SEEMS TO BE NOT
ENOUGH TO HINDER STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY PROPAGATION. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) EARLIER EXPANDED THE SLIGHT/MARGINAL
RISKS SOUTHWARD. IN ADDITION, THERE ARE ENOUGH TRENDS IN HREF
PROBS OF CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS & SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN HREF/CSU
MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE TO SUPPORT LOCALLY ADDING IN THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR INTO THIS, WHILE THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR
WAS ADDED INTO A MARGINAL RISK. OVERALL, THINKING IS THE SAME FOR
HAZARDS: 60-70MPH WINDS, QUARTER SIZE HAIL & A TORNADO CAN'T BE
RULED OUT (MAINLY FOCUSED IN THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR). TIMING IS
MAINLY AFTER 4-5PM IN THE EXTREME NORTHWEST DELTA, WITH SOME
EARLIER DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE, & PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE I-20 CORRIDOR AROUND 8-10PM & SOME PERSISTING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AS FAR SOUTH AS HWY 84. CONFIDENCE SOUTH OF I-20 IS LOWER
BUT A MARGINAL FITS FOR SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY.
FOR SENSIBLE FORECAST ELEMENTS, HIGHS TODAY & LOWS TONIGHT, WILL
BE SEASONABLY WARM, SOME 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE (HIGHS OF 87-93F &
LOWS OF 68-74F).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 429 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
THE DAY SHOULD START OUT RELATIVELY QUIET WITH NARY A SHOWER IN THE
SKY. AS THE SUN CROSSES ITS ZENITH, HOWEVER, EXPECT SHOWERS TO CREEP
INTO THE NORTHERN REACHES, SPREADING SOUTHWARDS. BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS EXPECT A SMATTERING OF THOSE SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE CWA, WITH
MORE INTENSE CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH HIGHWAY 82 CAUSED BY AN MCS
DROPPING DOWN OUT OF ARKANSAS. THE OVERALL IMPACTS AND SETUP ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MORE OR LESS IDENTICAL TO YESTERDAY: AN ORGANIZED MCS
IS PROGGED TO PROPAGATE ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A PRIMARY THREAT FOR WIND AND
SECONDARY LOW THREAT FOR HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. THE
ENVIRONMENT DOES APPEAR PRIMED FOR THE ORGANIZED COMPLEX TO MAINTAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING, INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE
PINE BELT. THE PERTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT SUPPORTS THESE
COMPLEXES IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO AT LEAST EARLY THIS WEEK IF NOT
MID WEEK. THE STALLED BOUNDARY ALONG WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL
KEEP RAIN AND STORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK
AHEAD. SOME STORMS HAVE A CHANCE OF ORGANIZING DEPENDING ON THE
ENVIRONMENT WHICH COULD BECOME SEVERE ANY GIVEN DAY, BUT THIS
POSSIBILITY IS DEPENDENT ON DAY TO DAY MESO AND MICROSCALE FEATURES
AND ENVIRONMENTS.
BY LATE THIS WEEK, THE LARGER SCALE LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS FURTHER
SOUTH AND MAY BRING A REGIME CHANGE, IN TURN DECREASING OUR CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND STORMS. BUT THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY THAT THE FRONT
STALLS BEFORE ANY SUCH AIR MASS CHANGE COULD OCCUR, IN WHICH CASE
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN. ITS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT WITH
THE PREVIOUS ROUNDS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
TREND TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY WHICH MEANS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
AIR MASS. IT IS THUS REASONABLE TO CONCLUDE THAT RAIN AND STORMS
WILL PREVAIL, WITH A WEAK RIDGE LINGERING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
FINALLY, WE ARE GOING TO REITERATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE WEEK DUE TO CONTINUED RAINFALL AND SATURATED
SOIL CONDITIONS, LEADING TO POOR PRECIPITABLE INFILTRATION.
THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED FROM THESE STORMS OVER THE NEXT
WEEK COULD PUSH US INTO RECORD TERRITORY FOR THE MONTH OF MAY.
LOCALIZING FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH HEAVIER RAIN THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK. /OAJ/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
SHRA AND TSRA CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN THE AREA BY AROUND 25/20-21Z
SUNDAY, WITH A POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BETWEEN 25/21Z TO 26/05Z TIME FRAME. ADDITIONAL MVFR CEILINGS
OR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE AFTER 26/06-15Z BEFORE IMPROVING.
ADDITIONAL SHRA & TSRA ARE PSBL MONDAY. /DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 71 89 72 86 / 30 60 40 80
MERIDIAN 68 90 70 87 / 40 70 40 80
VICKSBURG 71 89 71 84 / 30 60 40 80
HATTIESBURG 73 92 74 90 / 20 40 20 60
NATCHEZ 71 89 71 86 / 20 50 30 70
GREENVILLE 70 82 70 82 / 70 90 70 80
GREENWOOD 70 85 70 83 / 70 90 70 90
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DC/OAJ/DC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page