672
FXUS64 KJAN 260713 AAC
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
213 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
LOCAL RADARS SHOWED A BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NEARLY ALONG
AND JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS
WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS BAND
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA.
ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL END, RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS A COUPLE OF
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES INTERACT WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MEANDERING ACROSS OUR CWA. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAIN COOLED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA WHERE THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION
OCCURRED. MORNING LOWS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED AS A RESULT. /22/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO ADD AN ENHANCED RISK INTO THE HWY 82
CORRIDOR, WITH MAIN THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70MPH AND
HAIL QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE. IN ADDITION, A FLASH FLOOD RISK IS
POSSIBLE TOMORROW ON MONDAY NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE
(NORTHWEST DELTA TO MS RIVER CORRIDOR), WITH CONTINUED LOW END
MARGINAL SEVERE RISK AS WELL. PREVIOUS MORNING UPDATE THROUGH
TONIGHT IS ON TRACK AND BELOW.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS & STORM ACTIVITY, WITH ORGANIZED COMPLEX,
IS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING. MORNING UPPER AIR & SFC
ANALYSIS & MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THE REGION ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH STALLED SFC
BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LOW-
LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION OF 340-360K SFC THETA E & >340K THETA E AT 925-
850MB LAYER IS AIDING IN FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS, WITH NEARLY +2500-
3500 J/KG ML/SBCAPE & >1000 J/KG OF DCAPE. PERTURBED WESTERLY FLOW
AT 500MB IS AIDING IN SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY, WHICH IS INDUCING
EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE OZARKS. THIS IS
PROGGED TO SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY & MOVE EITHER AN ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OR OUTFLOW/COLD POOL BOUNDARY INTO THE HWY 82
CORRIDOR AROUND PEAK INSOLATION TIME. WITH NEARLY 25-35KTS OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IN THE 0-6KM LAYER, ANY STORMS THAT INITIATE PRIOR OR
ALONG A MORNING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SHOULD GROW UPSCALE AND PROPAGATE
SOUTHWARD. THE ONLY CAVEAT IS LOW-LEVEL BULK SHEAR VECTORS ARE
SOUTHWESTERLY, WHICH COULD DECREASE BALANCE OF COLD POOLS &
SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE HIGHEST SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER, SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY, THIS SEEMS TO BE NOT ENOUGH TO HINDER STRONG TO SEVERE
ACTIVITY PROPAGATION. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) EARLIER
EXPANDED THE SLIGHT/MARGINAL RISKS SOUTHWARD. IN ADDITION, THERE ARE
ENOUGH TRENDS IN HREF PROBS OF CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS & SEVERE
PROBABILITIES IN HREF/CSU MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE TO SUPPORT
LOCALLY ADDING IN THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR INTO THIS, WHILE THE
HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR WAS ADDED INTO A MARGINAL RISK. OVERALL,
THINKING IS THE SAME FOR HAZARDS: 60-70MPH WINDS, QUARTER SIZE HAIL
& A TORNADO CAN'T BE RULED OUT (MAINLY FOCUSED IN THE HWY 82
CORRIDOR). TIMING IS MAINLY AFTER 4-5PM IN THE EXTREME NORTHWEST
DELTA, WITH SOME EARLIER DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE, & PROPAGATING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE I-20 CORRIDOR AROUND 8-10PM & SOME PERSISTING
THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS FAR SOUTH AS HWY 84. CONFIDENCE SOUTH OF I-20 IS
LOWER BUT A MARGINAL FITS FOR SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
ACTIVITY. FOR SENSIBLE FORECAST ELEMENTS, HIGHS TODAY & LOWS
TONIGHT, WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM, SOME 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE (HIGHS OF
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NO BIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
STILL LOOKING FOR A DISTURBANCE TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION NEARLY
EVERYDAY THIS WEEK, BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES MAY BRING TWO ROUNDS EARLY MONDAY FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A STALLED FRONT,
MAYBE SOME LEFT OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN THE AFTERNOON WILL
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING.
ANOTHER WAVE ON WEDNESDAY RIDES THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS. THURSDAY MAY SEE SOME STRONG STORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY PASSES
IN LATE AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASING LLJ. STORMS LINGER INTO
FRIDAY, AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES OUT. COOLER AIR QUICKLY SETTLES IN
BEHIND IT. THE GFS HAS A WEAK BOUNDARY/CLOUDS PASSING ON SATURDAY,
BUT NO RAIN. LOOKING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE IN FOR THE
WEEKEND AND MAINTAIN INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. THERE ARE SOME
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND, MEX
GUIDANCE IS COOLER, ESPECIALLY WITH DRIER AIR AND CLEAR SKIES.
EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF NEAR 60 LOWS AND HIGHS NEAR 80 FRIDAY/SATURDAY
WILL DEVELOP. /07/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
A MIX OF SHRA AND TSRA TO START THE TAF PERIOD, ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 20. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD, WITH GREATEST THUNDER CHANCES BETWEEN 19Z-23Z.
/NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 72 86 69 84 / 40 80 40 70
MERIDIAN 70 88 67 87 / 40 80 50 80
VICKSBURG 72 83 69 84 / 50 80 30 60
HATTIESBURG 74 91 71 88 / 20 60 40 90
NATCHEZ 72 84 70 83 / 40 70 30 70
GREENVILLE 70 80 69 80 / 60 80 40 40
GREENWOOD 70 81 69 82 / 70 90 50 50
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/07/NF
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