970
FXUS64 KJAN 260922
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
422 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
THROUGH THE MID WEEK...
A BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK
WHICH WILL ACT AS THE PRIMARY ZONE OF FOCUS FOR OUR MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER FOR THE PERIOD. LATENT ATMOSPHERIC ENERGY REMAINS ROBUST
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WHICH WILL AID IN PROVIDING CONDITIONS FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SINCE THE AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY IS
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OVER THE CWA IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN
PRECISE LOCATIONS FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. AS SUCH,
WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED A MARGINAL (1/5) RISK FOR TODAY, SLIGHT RISK
(2/5) TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING (IN RESPONSE TO A MORE ENERGETIC
MCS DRIFTING DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS, PROVIDING A BIT MORE
ORGANIZATION SUPERIMPOSED OVER THE WIDESPREAD FIELD OF ENERGY),
MARGINAL (1/5) WEDNESDAY.
THE ADDITIONAL RAIN COULD BE HEAVY LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY IN OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH QPFS OVER 2IN.
MID THROUGH LATE WEEK...
BY THE LATE WEEK, THE LARGER SCALE LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS FURTHER
SOUTH AND MAY BRING A REGIME CHANGE, IN TURN DECREASING OUR CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND STORMS. BUT THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY THAT THE FRONT
STALLS BEFORE ANY SUCH AIR MASS CHANGE COULD OCCUR, IN WHICH CASE
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN. ITS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT WITH
THE PREVIOUS ROUNDS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
TREND TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY WHICH MEANS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
AIR MASS. IT IS THUS REASONABLE TO CONCLUDE THAT RAIN AND STORMS
WILL PREVAIL, WITH A WEAK RIDGE LINGERING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
FINALLY, WE ARE GOING TO REITERATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE WEEK DUE TO CONTINUED RAINFALL AND SATURATED
SOIL CONDITIONS, LEADING TO POOR PRECIPITABLE INFILTRATION./OAJ/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
A MIX OF SHRA AND TSRA TO START THE TAF PERIOD, ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 20. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD, WITH GREATEST THUNDER CHANCES BETWEEN 19Z-23Z.
/NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 87 72 85 69 / 80 40 90 40
MERIDIAN 88 70 87 68 / 70 40 90 40
VICKSBURG 88 71 84 69 / 80 50 90 30
HATTIESBURG 91 73 90 71 / 60 20 70 40
NATCHEZ 88 72 85 70 / 60 30 80 30
GREENVILLE 80 70 80 69 / 90 70 80 30
GREENWOOD 83 70 82 69 / 90 70 90 40
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
OAJ/OAJ/NF
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