649
FXUS64 KJAN 261649
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1149 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE AREA-WIDE. SEVERAL WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
BEEN ISSUED THIS MORNING WITH FLASH FLOODING BEING THE MAIN
THREAT. THIS TREND WILL SHIFT TOWARDS A MORE ORGANIZED COMPLEX AS
A CONVECTIVE LINE OF STORMS PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO THE CWA,LATER
TODAY.
THE LINE IS ALREADY PRODUCING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS WITH
WINDS OF UP TO 50MPH. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS BEING PERPENDICULAR
TO INITIATING BOUNDARIES, ALONG WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING LATER
IN THE DAY, WILL LEAD TO GREATER RISK FOR BOWING SEGMENTS, ENHANCING
POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS. MESSAGING REMAINS CONSISTENT FOR POTENTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS TODAY; ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS, DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, HAIL UP TO A QUARTER SIZE AND A TORNADO CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
TIMING ALSO REMAINS THE SAME; 11AM-3PM AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
RIVER, 1PM-5PM ALONG THE I-55 CORRIDOR AND 3PM-7PM FOR AREAS ALONG
THE I-59 CORRIDOR. IN TERMS OF THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT; A FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIVER. IN
ADDITION, UP TO 3IN HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN AREAS WEST OF I-55 THUS
THEY HAVE BEEN UPGRADED IN OUR GRAPHICAL HWO TO AN "ELEVATED" RISK
FOR FLASH FLOODING AND AREAS EAST OF I-55 REMAIN AT A "LIMITED" RISK
FOR FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THIS EVENING./KP/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
THROUGH THE MID WEEK...
A BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK
WHICH WILL ACT AS THE PRIMARY ZONE OF FOCUS FOR OUR MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER FOR THE PERIOD. LATENT ATMOSPHERIC ENERGY REMAINS ROBUST
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WHICH WILL AID IN PROVIDING CONDITIONS FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SINCE THE AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY IS
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OVER THE CWA IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN
PRECISE LOCATIONS FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. AS SUCH,
WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED A MARGINAL (1/5) RISK FOR TODAY, SLIGHT RISK
(2/5) TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING (IN RESPONSE TO A MORE ENERGETIC
MCS DRIFTING DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS, PROVIDING A BIT MORE
ORGANIZATION SUPERIMPOSED OVER THE WIDESPREAD FIELD OF ENERGY),
MARGINAL (1/5) WEDNESDAY.
THE ADDITIONAL RAIN COULD BE HEAVY LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY IN OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH QPFS OVER 2IN.
MID THROUGH LATE WEEK...
BY THE LATE WEEK, THE LARGER SCALE LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS FURTHER
SOUTH AND MAY BRING A REGIME CHANGE, IN TURN DECREASING OUR CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND STORMS. BUT THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY THAT THE FRONT
STALLS BEFORE ANY SUCH AIR MASS CHANGE COULD OCCUR, IN WHICH CASE
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN. ITS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT WITH
THE PREVIOUS ROUNDS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
TREND TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY WHICH MEANS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
AIR MASS. IT IS THUS REASONABLE TO CONCLUDE THAT RAIN AND STORMS
WILL PREVAIL, WITH A WEAK RIDGE LINGERING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
FINALLY, WE ARE GOING TO REITERATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE WEEK DUE TO CONTINUED RAINFALL AND SATURATED
SOIL CONDITIONS, LEADING TO POOR PRECIPITABLE INFILTRATION./OAJ/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
A MIX OF SHRA AND TSRA TO START THE TAF PERIOD, ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 20. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD, WITH GREATEST THUNDER CHANCES BETWEEN 19Z-23Z.
/NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 87 72 85 69 / 50 40 90 40
MERIDIAN 88 70 87 68 / 50 40 90 40
VICKSBURG 88 71 84 69 / 70 40 90 30
HATTIESBURG 91 73 90 71 / 40 20 70 40
NATCHEZ 88 72 85 70 / 40 30 80 30
GREENVILLE 80 70 80 69 / 70 60 80 30
GREENWOOD 83 70 82 69 / 70 70 90 40
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR MSZ018-019-034-035-
040>042-047-048-053-054-059>061.
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
AR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ074-075.
KP/OAJ/NF
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