271
FXUS64 KJAN 262113
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
413 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
REST OF TODAY: THE CONVECTIVE LINE CONTINUES TO MAKE IT'S WAY
THROUGH THE CWA THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, FOCUSED MAINLY SOUTH
OF I-20. AS THE LINE PROGRESSES, IT WILL TRANSITION FROM A LINEAR
STORM MODE INTO AN ISOLATED/SCATTERED MODE. HIGH CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT EMBEDDED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PROGRESSING OUT OF OUR AREA. BEHIND CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS AREAWIDE WILL BE IN THE 1-2IN RANGE, WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 2IN POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST.
REST OF THE WEEK: A VARIETY OF DIFFERENT GRAPHICS AND OUTLOOKS
ARE IN STORE FOR THE AREA AS A BOUNDARY LINGERS THOUGH THE WEEK.
THE BOUNDARY WILL BE THE MAIN SOURCE OF WEATHER THIS WEEK,
ENHANCING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS DAILY. A "MARGINAL" AND
"SLIGHT" THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED FOR
TUESDAY AS WELL AS A "LIMITED" RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING. A
"MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ALSO EXISTS FOR WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH THE FRONT
REMAINING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS POSSIBLE SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. BY
SATURDAY, THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH LINKED TO AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IN THE MIDWEST DIGGING
SOUTHWARD DECREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL THE PERIOD CAN BE CHARACTERIZED BY LOW-LEVEL SEVERE THREATS
AND CONSTANT RAIN CHANCES DAY TO DAY. WE CAN EXPECT 7 DAY RAINFALL OF
AN ADDITIONAL 2-4IN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. FLASH FLOODING RISK WILL INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. /KP/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
A MIX OF MVFR/IFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SITES WILL
BE IMPACTED BY SHRA AND TSRA. AS STORMS PASS THE MIX WILL PREVAIL
AS LOWERED CEILINGS WILL LINGER. BRIEF PERIODS OF LOWERED
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PINE BELT OVERNIGHT INTO
THE MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING BY 15-16Z./KP/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 70 85 69 85 / 0 80 40 60
MERIDIAN 70 86 66 86 / 0 80 40 70
VICKSBURG 70 84 68 84 / 0 80 30 50
HATTIESBURG 73 90 71 88 / 0 70 40 80
NATCHEZ 71 86 69 84 / 0 80 30 60
GREENVILLE 68 80 67 81 / 80 80 30 30
GREENWOOD 68 81 67 83 / 60 90 40 40
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR MSZ018-019-034-035-
040>042-047-048-053-054-059>061.
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
AR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ074-075.
KP/KP/DC
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