138
FXUS64 KJAN 270311 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1011 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
THE LOCAL RADARS WERE QUIET AT MID EVENING AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND WEST
CENTRAL ZONES. THIS LULL IN CONVECTION WILL LAST SEVERAL HOURS
PAST MIDNIGHT BUT REDEVELOPMENT FROM THE WEST REMAINS POSSIBLE
PRIOR TO SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OF A FEW
INCHES IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE
OVER ALREADY SATURATED SOILS SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 7AM WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED IN TIME TUESDAY MORNING AS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
MANIFESTS. THANKS TO THE RECENT RAINFALL SOME SITES ARE ALREADY
OBSERVING PATCHY FOG BUT AN ELEVATED LAYER OF STRATUS IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING VS DENSE FOG. THE EARLIER STORMS HAVE
LED TO AREAS OF RAIN COOLED AIR AND HOURLY TEMPERATURE CURVES HAVE
BEEN ADJUSTED. /22/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
REST OF TODAY: THE CONVECTIVE LINE CONTINUES TO MAKE IT'S WAY
THROUGH THE CWA THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, FOCUSED MAINLY SOUTH
OF I-20. AS THE LINE PROGRESSES, IT WILL TRANSITION FROM A LINEAR
STORM MODE INTO AN ISOLATED/SCATTERED MODE. HIGH CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT EMBEDDED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PROGRESSING OUT OF OUR AREA. BEHIND CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS AREAWIDE WILL BE IN THE 1-2IN RANGE, WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 2IN POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST.
REST OF THE WEEK: A VARIETY OF DIFFERENT GRAPHICS AND OUTLOOKS
ARE IN STORE FOR THE AREA AS A BOUNDARY LINGERS THOUGH THE WEEK.
THE BOUNDARY WILL BE THE MAIN SOURCE OF WEATHER THIS WEEK,
ENHANCING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS DAILY. A "MARGINAL" AND
"SLIGHT" THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED FOR
TUESDAY AS WELL AS A "LIMITED" RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING. A
"MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ALSO EXISTS FOR WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH THE FRONT
REMAINING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS POSSIBLE SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. BY
SATURDAY, THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH LINKED TO AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IN THE MIDWEST DIGGING
SOUTHWARD DECREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL THE PERIOD CAN BE CHARACTERIZED BY LOW-LEVEL SEVERE THREATS
AND CONSTANT RAIN CHANCES DAY TO DAY. WE CAN EXPECT 7 DAY RAINFALL OF
AN ADDITIONAL 2-4IN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. FLASH FLOODING RISK WILL INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. /KP/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
THE TSRA HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA AND VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL
UNTIL AFTER 08Z. AFTER 08Z MVFR/IFR CIGS WL DEVELOP AND PREVAIL AT
MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 15Z BEFORE IMPROVING. A LINE OF TSRA WL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY 12Z AND PROGRESS TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE AFTN. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOWER FLYING
CONDITIONS. AWAY FROM TSRAS VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL BY 17Z. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 70 85 69 85 / 40 80 40 60
MERIDIAN 70 86 66 86 / 10 80 40 70
VICKSBURG 70 84 68 84 / 60 90 30 50
HATTIESBURG 73 90 71 88 / 10 70 40 80
NATCHEZ 71 86 69 84 / 40 80 30 60
GREENVILLE 68 80 67 81 / 70 80 30 30
GREENWOOD 68 81 67 83 / 70 90 40 40
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MSZ018-019-034-035-
040>042-047-048-053-054-059>061.
LA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
AR...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ074-075.
22/KP/22
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