114
FXUS64 KJAN 271808 AAB
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
108 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1034 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS THE OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED. CURRENT DGX RADAR HAS WIDESPREAD
STORMS (SOME HAVE REACHED SEVERE LIMITS) MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
THE SEVERE RISK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
SHOWER/STORM REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. /SW/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
THROUGH THURSDAY...
A RIDGE WILL STAY ANCHORED OFF TO OUR EAST WHICH WILL CAUSE AN
OVERALL STAGNATION IN THE REGIME AND ENTRENCH WESTERLY MID TO UPPER
LEVEL FLOW. RINSE AND REPEAT STRONG OR SEVERE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH BOUTS OF MCSS
MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE CWA FROM THE WEST. IN TANDEM WITH THESE
MCSS (DRIVEN BY UPPER LEVEL WAVES TRAVERSING THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN)
THERE WILL BE A LINGERING BOUNDARY LYING THROUGH THE AREA WHICH WILL
AID IN OUR LOW LEVEL LIFT/INITIATION. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS OVER
EMBEDDED SEVERE STORM DENSITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
MCS/MCS REMNANTS. SHOULD AN UPSTREAM MCS HOLD TOGETHER WHILE IT
MAKES ITS WAY OVER LOUISIANA, OUR SEVERE STORM COVERAGE WILL BE
FAIRLY DENSE. CONVERSELY, IF AN MCS STRUGGLES TO REMAIN ORGANIZED
UPSTREAM THAT WILL THEN CAUSE A SUBSEQUENT DOWNWARDS TREND IN THE
TOTAL AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE CELLS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
WHERE THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL OUTPUTS IS THAT
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 WILL SEE THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS INCREASED AREA OF CONFIDENCE IS REFLECTED IN
THE SEVERAL GRAPHICS/PRODUCTS WE HAVE ISSUED.
FRIDAY ONWARDS...
A WELCOME REGIME CHANGE IS ON THE HORIZON FOR OUR AREA AS A DEEP LOW
SPINNING UP IN NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED TO TRAVEL EAST THROUGH THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY BY THE LATE WEEK. TRAILING FROM THIS LOW WILL BE A
ROBUST COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT OF THE ACTIVE EARLY WEEK SIPHONING OFF MOISTURE/ENERGY AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ANY RISK FOR
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOULD DEWPOINTS REBOUND HIGHER
THAN EXPECTED THIS FORECAST COULD CHANGE, BUT THAT LOOKS UNLIKELY AT
THIS TIME. ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA SOME TIME EARLY SATURDAY
EXPECT MODERATED HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO HIGH
60S AND BENIGN CONDITIONS TO FINISH OUT THE PERIOD./OAJ/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AS
MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS COME TO AN END. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH BRIEF
REDUCTION IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS. LOW CEILINGS AROUND 08Z WEDNESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MVFR/LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. /SW/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 67 85 67 83 / 30 50 50 70
MERIDIAN 66 85 66 83 / 40 50 50 80
VICKSBURG 68 84 67 83 / 20 50 50 70
HATTIESBURG 70 87 69 85 / 50 70 50 90
NATCHEZ 68 83 67 82 / 30 60 50 70
GREENVILLE 66 82 67 82 / 20 30 40 60
GREENWOOD 66 84 67 82 / 20 30 40 70
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
OAJ/SW
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