203
FXUS64 KJAN 280257 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
957 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST ENDED EARLIER THIS EVENING AS IT SHIFTED EAST INTO
ALABAMA. EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED DRIER AIR
ALOFT MOVING ACROSS OUR CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE MOST RECENT
SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT OUR REGION. ALSO NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
WAS VIGOROUS CONVECTION FIRING OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY
IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO OUR CWA BY MORNING AND ONLY VERY
LOW CHANCES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF OUR CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST ZONES WILL BE CARRIED THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. VERY
LITTLE CLOUD COVER WAS LEFT OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AND MAY BECOME DENSE TOWARD MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW EVENINGS
TEMPERATURES WERE RAIN COOLED WHERE THE STRONGEST CONVECTION
OCCURRED BUT FORECAST MORNING LOWS STILL LOOK ON TRACK. /22/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: LITTLE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST AS A
RIDGE OFF TO OUR EAST WITH ENTRENCH MID/UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO CAUSE AN OVERALL STAGNATION IN THE AIRMASS. PATCHY
DENSE TO AREAS OF FOG CAN'T BE RULED OUT TONIGHT & WEDNESDAY NIGHT
IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED EFFICIENT RAINFALL RECENTLY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A POTENTIAL DECAYING COMPLEX OF STORMS
MOVING INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON; HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY IN
STRENGTH REMAINS. GIVEN THE SEVERE NATURE OVER THE PAST FEW DAY
AND MINIMAL ATMOSPHERIC CHANGES, SEVERE STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TODAY'S SEVERE HWO GRAPHIC, ADDING
TIMING MAINLY BETWEEN 3- 7PM AND BY MOVING THE "SLIGHT" RISK AREA
EASTWARD AND WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING AS SOILS
ARE SATURATED.
FRIDAY THROUGH END OF PERIOD: A DEEP LOW NEAR NEBRASKA IS
EXPECTED TO TRAVEL EAST THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE WEEK
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, POTENTIALLY ORGANIZED,
COULD MOVE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ALONG THE FRONT.
DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH QUIET CONDITIONS
EXPECTED POST FRONTAL PASSAGE. AN ISOLATED, AFTERNOON
SHOWER/STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE 80S
AND LOWS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. /SW/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
TSRA WL AFFECT MEI-PIB-HBG THROUGH 01Z BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OF THE
AREA. AFTER 01Z MVFR CIGS WL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH WHILE VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL CNTRL AND SOUTH. AFTER 08Z MVFR/IFR CIGS WL
DEVELOP OVER THE WHOLE AREA AND PREVAIL UNTIL AFTER 15Z. BY 17Z
VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AREAWIDE AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 67 85 67 82 / 20 50 60 80
MERIDIAN 66 86 66 80 / 20 40 60 90
VICKSBURG 67 84 68 83 / 20 50 60 80
HATTIESBURG 70 89 70 84 / 10 70 50 90
NATCHEZ 68 84 66 82 / 10 60 60 80
GREENVILLE 66 82 68 80 / 10 30 50 70
GREENWOOD 65 84 67 81 / 20 30 60 80
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/SW/22
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