437
FXUS64 KJAN 281655 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1155 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
REST OF TODAY...
THE ATMOSPHERE HAS SOMEWHAT MORE TAME EARLIER THIS MORNING,
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, BUT THIS ONLY A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE.
ADDITIONAL EARLY TO LATE EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED GENERALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE AIRMASS HAS DRIED
SOMEWHAT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, WITH PWS GENERALLY IN THE 1.3 TO
1.5 INCH RANGE FROM THE I-20 TO I-10 CORRIDORS, WITH BUILDING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/DCAPES ALONG THE GULF COAST. MORNING UPPER
AIR/RAP ANALYSIS & WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE GENERALLY WESTERLY
FLOW, WITH A COLD CORE LOW SITUATED SOUTHEAST OF THE TX PANHANDLE
INTO CENTRAL TX. THIS IS PROGGED TO SWING EASTWARD, HELPING
ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOR STORMS TO PROPAGATE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST & SOUTH NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. WITH POTENTIAL OF
GENERALLY 15-30KTS SOUTHWESTERLY BACKGROUND FLOW IN THE 0-2KM &
0-3KM LAYERS & DUE ORTHOGONAL ORIENTATION OF THE BACKGROUND FLOW
TO THE PROJECTED AFTN CONVECTION, THIS WILL AID IN MCS
ORGANIZATION MOVING NORTHWARD OFF THE GULF COAST INTO THE HWY 84
TO I-20 CORRIDORS. THERE COULD BE EFFICIENT COLD POOL PRODUCTION &
PERSISTENCE, WHICH FITS MORE SNEAKER SEVERE EVENTS IN OUR AREA. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH SPC, A "SLIGHT" WAS ADDED INTO THE HWY 84
CORRIDOR TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED WIND EFFICIENCY & PROBABILITIES.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60MPH & QUARTER SIZE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS. TIMING WILL MAINLY BE BETWEEN 6PM TO 11PM, GENERALLY
BEFORE 8PM ALONG & SOUTH OF HWY 84 & THROUGH 11PM TO THE NORTH.
HWO GRAPHICS OUTLOOKS WILL BE ADJUSTED & TIMING IS GOING TO BE
ADDED SHORTLY. FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS, HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL (82-90F) & RAIN & STORM COVERAGE MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
INTO THIS EVENING (35-65%) WHILE MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
(15-45%) THIS AFTERNOON, GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-20 & INTO THE HWY 84
CORRIDOR UPDATES ARE OUT. /DC/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK WITH THE
CONTINUATION OF THE WET PATTERN. A TRAIN OF MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP A
MARGINAL STORM THREAT TODAY AND TOMORROW. THIS WILL LIKELY COME IN
THE FORM OF ORGANIZED STORM COMPLEXES LIKE WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS WITH A PRIMARY THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE. NO SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE IS
EXPECTED UNTIL LATER FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONT. ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE TRAILING FRONT, SOME STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS
IT PUSHES SOUTH, BUT WITH UPPER FORCING EJECTING OUT, SEVERE RISK
APPEARS MORE LIMITED.
WE FINALLY DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S THIS WEEKEND. THE HUMID AIRMASS
RECOVERS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES AS RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORIES ARE RESTORED.
THIS WILL RETURN DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON STORMS TO THE
FORECAST, BUT THE WEAK SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT BETTER ORGANIZATION AND
THUS GREATER SEVERE THREAT./SAS/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
FOG AND LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE FLIGHT CATEGORIES
BELOW VFR THROUGH 14Z BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE WITH DAYTIME
MIXING. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE INTO THIS EVENING
WITH REDUCTIONS IN CEILING/VISIBILITY CATEGORIES IN THE VICINITY.
PATCHY FOG AND LOWERED CEILINGS RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
PREDAWN WITH MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. /86/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 86 68 83 68 / 10 50 90 30
MERIDIAN 86 66 83 66 / 10 40 90 40
VICKSBURG 86 68 83 67 / 20 60 80 30
HATTIESBURG 90 70 84 71 / 30 50 100 30
NATCHEZ 86 67 83 68 / 30 60 90 20
GREENVILLE 82 68 81 65 / 0 30 70 50
GREENWOOD 84 66 82 65 / 0 30 80 50
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DC/SAS20/LP
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