244
FXUS64 KJAN 290612 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
112 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 844 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
A BAND OF NORTHWARD MOVING STORMS HAS REACHED THE I-20 CORRIDOR
THIS EVENING, WITH LIMITED FAN FARE FORTUNATELY. GUSTS IN THE
30-40 MPH RANGE ARE STILL OCCURRING ALONG THIS LINE, BUT WITH
INSTABILITY NOW WANING, THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS
DECREASED CONSIDERABLY. ALL OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA HAS BEEN CANCELED EARLY. THOUGH THE
SEVERE THREAT IS NOW MINIMAL, A COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE AND
ADVANCING MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED
SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS A NONZERO FLOODING THREAT IN ANY TRAINING HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND TYPICALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO THE FORECAST TO TRY TO BETTER TIME OUT POPS AND ACCOUNT
FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. /DL/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON-EVENING: THE ATMOSPHERE HAS SOMEWHAT MORE TAME
EARLIER THIS MORNING, COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, BUT THIS ONLY A
TEMPORARY REPRIEVE. ADDITIONAL EARLY TO LATE EVENING CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED GENERALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE AIRMASS
HAS DRIED SOMEWHAT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, WITH PWS GENERALLY IN THE
1.3 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE FROM THE I-20 TO I-10 CORRIDORS, WITH BUILDING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/DCAPES ALONG THE GULF COAST. MORNING UPPER
AIR/RAP ANALYSIS & WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE GENERALLY WESTERLY
FLOW, WITH A COLD CORE LOW SITUATED SOUTHEAST OF THE TX PANHANDLE
INTO CENTRAL TX. THIS IS PROGGED TO SWING EASTWARD, HELPING ENOUGH
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOR STORMS TO PROPAGATE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST &
SOUTH NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. WITH POTENTIAL OF GENERALLY 15-
30KTS SOUTHWESTERLY BACKGROUND FLOW IN THE 0-2KM & 0-3KM LAYERS &
DUE ORTHOGONAL ORIENTATION OF THE BACKGROUND FLOW TO THE PROJECTED
AFTN CONVECTION, THIS WILL AID IN MCS ORGANIZATION MOVING NORTHWARD
OFF THE GULF COAST INTO THE HWY 84 TO I-20 CORRIDORS. THERE COULD BE
EFFICIENT COLD POOL PRODUCTION & PERSISTENCE, WHICH FITS MORE
SNEAKER SEVERE EVENTS IN OUR AREA. AFTER COORDINATING WITH SPC, A
"SLIGHT" WAS ADDED INTO THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED
WIND EFFICIENCY & PROBABILITIES.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60MPH & QUARTER SIZE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS. TIMING WILL MAINLY BE BETWEEN 6PM TO 11PM, GENERALLY
BEFORE 8PM ALONG & SOUTH OF HWY 84 & THROUGH 11PM TO THE NORTH. HWO
GRAPHICS OUTLOOKS WILL BE ADJUSTED & TIMING IS GOING TO BE ADDED
SHORTLY. FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS, HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
(82-90F) & RAIN & STORM COVERAGE MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS INTO
THIS EVENING (35-65%) WHILE MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED (15-45%) THIS
AFTERNOON, GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-20 & INTO THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR
UPDATES ARE OUT.
TONIGHT-THURSDAY: RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DWINDLE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH SOME POTENTIAL THAT SOME
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN TYPICAL SPOTS THAT RECEIVED GOOD RAIN OR
WINDS COULD BECOME LIGHT & VARIABLE. LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM
SOME 2-5F ABOVE NORMAL (65-69F). WITH WESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING &
INCREASE MOIST ADVECTION (PWS APPROACHING 1.75-1.9 INCHES),
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORM COVERAGE (55-90%) WILL BE LIKELY.
INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW OF 25-35KTS IN THE 0-3KM TO 0-6KM LAYERS
WILL SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE
AFTN TO EVENING. ONGOING HWO GRAPHIC LOOKS INTACT, BUT THERE IS LOW
PROBABILITY OF SOME MORNING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ALONG THE HWY 84
CORRIDOR AGAIN BEFORE SCATTERED AFTN CONVECTION IN THE WAKE.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS LOWER BUT WILL DEPEND ON PRIOR
MESOSCALE SETUP IN THE WAKE OF THE WEDNESDAY EVENING COMPLEX OF
STORMS. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, IN EXCESS OF 2-
3", ESPECIALLY IN THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR, BUT POTENTIAL SCATTERED
NATURE LIMITS CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IN AN HWO GRAPHIC. WITH RAIN &
STORMS AROUND, HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL, SOME 2-5F BELOW NORMAL
(79-84F). /DC/
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY:
THE WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END AS UPPER-LVL TROUGH
WILL PUSH A PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND TRAILING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY,
POTENTIALLY ORGANIZED, COULD MOVE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ALONG
THE FRONT.
RIDGING PATTERN WILL BUILD IN POST FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. AN ISOLATED, AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS UPPER-LVL, NORTHWEST FLOW PUSH A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE AREA. NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGE TEMPS (HIGHS IN THE 80S/LOWS IN THE 60S) ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. /SW/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
SCATTERED SHRA AND EMBEDDED TSRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH 09Z BEFORE CONDITIONS GENERALLY IMPROVE. LOW CLOUDS WILL
BE SLOW TO LIFT WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING UNTIL AFTER
18Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAILS THEREAFTER. /86/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 82 68 79 60 / 80 40 40 0
MERIDIAN 81 66 81 59 / 80 30 50 0
VICKSBURG 82 69 80 61 / 70 30 30 0
HATTIESBURG 85 70 85 62 / 90 20 70 10
NATCHEZ 81 70 80 61 / 80 20 40 0
GREENVILLE 81 67 79 61 / 60 60 20 0
GREENWOOD 82 67 79 59 / 70 60 20 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
LP/DC/SW
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