114
FXUS64 KJAN 291745
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1245 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
CURRENT RADAR SCANS FROM THIS MORNING SHOW A LINE OF SHOWERS OUT OF
OUR FORECAST AREA TRACKING EAST ACROSS ALABAMA GIVING US A BRIEF
LITTLE BREAK FROM THE RAIN. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF OUR CWA. A FEW ISOLATED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS CANNOT BE RULED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NW DELTA. SKY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA AS A QUICK LOOK
AT GOES 16 VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE CLOUD COVER WILL HELP LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING
TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS PEAKING IN THE LOW/MID 80S AREAWIDE.
/CR/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
THROUGH NEXT WEEK...
THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF RAIN AND STORMS AS A TRAIN OF MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCES PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE STAGNANT HUMID AIRMASS WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT
STORMS WITH MARGINAL SEVERE RISK, MAINLY FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL TO QUARTER SIZE. THE MARGINAL RISK FOR TODAY HAS BEEN
HIGHLIGHTED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. BY FRIDAY, A FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AND AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT, WHICH STILL NECESSITATES A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HWY 84
CORRIDOR.
WE FINALLY SEE DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S THIS WEEKEND. THIS IS SHORT LIVED
HOWEVER, AS THE HUMID AIRMASS RECOVERS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RIDGING
BUILDING ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORIES RESTORED. THIS
WILL RETURN RAIN AND STORM CHANCES, THOUGH MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
THE WEAK FLOW SHOULD LIMIT BETTER ORGANIZATION AND THUS GREATER
SEVERE THREAT. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA
WILL WORK TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS
IN COMBINATION WITH LACK OF AIRMASS CHANGE WILL LIKELY KEEP SOME
RAIN CHANCES AROUND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD./SAS/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
A MIXTURE OF MVFR/VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES TO
START OFF THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS
CENTRAL MS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. VFR CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD THROUGH 08Z FRIDAY. CEILINGS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST. /CR/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 68 81 60 82 / 0 30 0 0
MERIDIAN 66 82 58 84 / 0 40 0 0
VICKSBURG 69 81 61 83 / 0 30 0 0
HATTIESBURG 69 88 62 86 / 0 40 0 0
NATCHEZ 68 81 61 82 / 0 30 0 0
GREENVILLE 68 78 61 83 / 20 30 0 0
GREENWOOD 68 79 59 83 / 20 40 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SAS/CR
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