365
FXUS64 KJAN 300218 AAB
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
918 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 918 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
CONVECTION HAS REMAINED ISOLATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING, WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS HANGING ON AROUND COLUMBUS AS OF
THIS UPDATE. CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
HOUR WITH THE CONTINUED DECREASE IN INSTABILITY. OVERNIGHT, WE'LL
SEE A RESURGENCE OF LOW CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG, BUT PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE KEEPS GREATER CHANCES FOR DENSE FOG SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
ALONG THE ACTUAL FRONT, GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A WEST
TO EAST BAND OF SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS, TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND APPROACH THE ARKLAMISS DELTA AREA HEADING TOWARD
DAYBREAK TOMORROW. CONSENSUS IN THERE BEING MUCH DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT IS FAR FROM STRONG, AND SOME SOLUTIONS,
INCLUDING THE HRRR, SHOW LITTLE DEVELOPMENT AND STRUGGLE TO
MAINTAIN WAS DOES DEVELOP. CURRENT FORECAST POPS AND WEATHER SEEM
TO HAVE THIS REGIME WELL HANDLED ALREADY, SO NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE
PLANNED AT THIS TIME. /DL/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
THROUGH TOMORROW:
IN THE WAKE OF THE LATEST DISTURBANCE - A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST - RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS INDICATE A
MORE SUPPRESSED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING
STILL LEADING TO 1500-2500 J/KG OF SBCAPE. ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE
AFTER DARK, BUT THEN ONE FINAL DISTURBANCE IN THIS STRING OF ACTIVE
WEATHER WILL PIVOT EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND MID-SOUTH REGIONS
HEADING INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE WAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING, AND THEN POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE WAVE CROSSES SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR OUR AREA BY TOMORROW
NIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND (DEW POINTS INTO THE 50S AND 60S). THE PATTERN IS A LITTLE
TRICKY WITH STRONG RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, A CUTOFF LOW
NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA, AND TROUGHING OVER THE US EAST COAST. A
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE COMING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH
COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SUNDAY OR MONDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE FOR
MOST OF OUR AREA IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL BRING THE RETURN OF WARM,
HUMID AIR FROM THE SOUTH. RIDGING PASSING OVERHEAD WILL SUPPORT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL. THEREFORE THE SUMMERY COMBINATION
OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN TO THE REGION BY THE BACK HALF OF
THE WEEK. AND ACCORDINGLY, SOME STORMINESS COULD BE POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON HOW THE PATTERN SETS UP. /NF/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
ISOLATED SHRA ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST MS AROUND GTR OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, THEN DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS BUILDING CLOSER TO DAYBREAK.
PATCHY VISBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO FOG ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BRIEFLY
AROUND DAYBREAK. A FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY, BRINGING A SHIFT TO NW/N WIND AND SCATTERED SHRA AND
ISOLATED TS. LOW CEILINGS MAY PERSIST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT INTO
THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AT SOME SITES, BUT A RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE IS ANTICIPATED BY LATE AFTERNOON. /DL/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 68 81 60 82 / 0 30 0 0
MERIDIAN 66 82 58 84 / 10 40 0 0
VICKSBURG 69 81 61 83 / 0 30 0 0
HATTIESBURG 69 88 62 86 / 0 40 0 0
NATCHEZ 68 81 61 82 / 0 30 0 0
GREENVILLE 68 78 61 83 / 20 30 0 0
GREENWOOD 68 79 59 83 / 20 40 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DL/NF
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