658
FXUS64 KJAN 041720 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1220 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 944 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
MUCH OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY TODAY AS LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED DRIER AIR ACROSS OUR CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUR
SOUTHWEST MOST ZONES WHERE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A CLOUD SHIELD WAS
NOTED. THIS SOUTHWEST PORTION OF OUR CWA IS WHERE WL CARRY LOW
CHANCES POPS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CHANCE OF RAIN WILL END AND THE
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING ALLOWING
FOR DECENT VIEWING OF FIREWORKS. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. /22/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
THROUGH MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK (THURSDAY)...
DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS REMAINS A CONCERN BEGINNING THIS INDEPENDENCE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INCREASING THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BE SURE TO STAY
COOL AND HYDRATED, AND USE SUNSCREEN IF ENJOYING THE DAY
OUTDOORS.
1018-1020MB SFC HIGH SITUATED OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY
PROPAGATE TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH 592DM 500MB
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL MIGRATE TO A CUT-OFF
LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD EAST OF THE FL PENINSULA, WHERE A
POTENTIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTERLY TO
MORE SOUTHERLY BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL
BE REMAIN MOST CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA,
GENERALLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM VICKSBURG TO NATCHEZ. MORNING
GOES EAST WATER VAPOR TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWS) INDICATE 1.6 TO
1.9 INCHES, WHERE THE AREA OF RAIN AND ISOLATED STORM CHANCES
WILL RESIDE TODAY.
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY, THE CUTOFF
LOW WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD IN THE NORTHERN GULF. EXPECT MOISTURE
TO CONTINUE TO BUILD IN, CLOSER TO 2 INCHES INTO EARLY TO MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN MESSAGING CONCERNS REMAINS TO BE
THE INCREASED HEAT STRESS BUILDING IN THIS INDEPENDENCE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AND WORSENING ACROSS THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLY
WARM HIGHS, SOME 3-6F ABOVE (92-97F), ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. THIS COMBINED WITH RETURN
FLOW, BOUNDARY LEVEL DEWPOINTS WILL PEAK IN THE 72-77F RANGE
DURING THE WORK WEEK. WITH SOME DRIER AIR AROUND INTO EARLY
WEEKEND, SOME MIXING COULD OCCUR (SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 67-70F
RANGE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY), HELPING KEEP PEAK AFTN HEAT INDICES
EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 IN CHECK (96-100F TODAY AND 101-104F
SATURDAY). CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN KEEPING THE ONGOING "LIMITED"
HEAT GRAPHIC GOING THROUGH THE MID TO LATE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
A GRADUAL EXPANSION OF THE THREAT AREA AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAT
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. INCREASED
CONVERGENCE AND RAIN AND STORM COVERAGE WILL IN THE 15-45% RANGE
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY, SHIFTING OUT OF THE PINE BELT TO AREAWIDE
INTO NEXT WEEK, AND 35-70% BY WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY. THIS COULD
KEEP HIGHS STAYING IN CHECK NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS BUT DEWPOINTS
WILL STILL REMAIN HIGH, SO HEAT CONCERNS WILL REMAIN, EVEN AT
TIMES IN MID MORNING TO NEAR NOON BEFORE CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
LASTLY, WITH DAILY DIURNAL CONVECTION AND TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS
DROPPING SOUTHWARD, COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND
NORTHWEST FLOW/SHEAR, SOME STRONGER TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
CAN'T BE RULED OUT BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. BOTH WILL HAVE TO BE
ASSESSED ON DAY-TO-DAY BASIS. /DC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND A LIGHT WIIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 93 72 95 73 / 0 0 10 10
MERIDIAN 94 71 95 72 / 0 0 20 10
VICKSBURG 94 72 96 75 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 96 72 97 72 / 0 0 30 10
NATCHEZ 93 72 94 74 / 20 0 10 10
GREENVILLE 93 72 95 74 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 94 72 96 75 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/DC/22
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