175
FXUS64 KJAN 070541
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1241 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE HEADING INTO MONDAY THANKS TO
INCREASED SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF.
INCREASED HEAT STRESS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS
LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A
LINE FROM GRENADA TO JACKSON TO LAUREL MS WILL SEE HEAT INDEX
READINGS BETWEEN 105-110 DEGREES. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE AND
THE "ELEVATED" RISK FOR INCREASING HEAT STRESS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVERTISED. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY
GIVEN THE INCREASED WARMING TRENDS. FURTHER THREAT AREA
ADJUSTMENTS AS WELL AS HEAT HEADLINES AND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES WILL START TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA
HEADING INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGHER CONVECTION CHANCES WEDNESDAY TO
FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR SEASONABLE
LEVELS. DEWPOINTS WILL STILL REMAIN HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
WITH THE HOTTEST TIMEFRAME BEING MID MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON EACH
DAY BEFORE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS BEGIN. GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS STILL
SHOWING A TROUGH AXIS OVER THE MID TENNESSEE VALLEY DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MS HEADING INTO THE LATE WEEK. THIS
COMBINED WITH DAILY DIURNAL CONVECTION, FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND
WESTERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
TO OCCUR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW AT THIS TIME
REGARDING THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM GIVEN THE
INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE. MORE INFORMATION WILL BECOME
AVAILABLE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE LATE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 21Z MONDAY BEFORE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA POSSIBLY IMPACTING TAF
SITES. TSRA SHOULD WRAP AROUND 0Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER, AREAS OF
PATCHY FOG MAY BRIEFLY LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CATEGORIES THROUGH
15Z MONDAY./KP/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 94 72 92 73 / 30 10 60 20
MERIDIAN 95 72 92 72 / 40 10 50 10
VICKSBURG 95 74 94 74 / 30 10 50 20
HATTIESBURG 95 73 95 73 / 60 10 60 10
NATCHEZ 92 72 92 72 / 60 10 60 10
GREENVILLE 95 73 93 74 / 20 10 50 20
GREENWOOD 96 74 94 74 / 20 10 60 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/CR/KP
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