905
FXUS64 KJAN 071721 AAC
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1221 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
REST OF TODAY...ANOTHER HOT, AND INCREASINGLY HUMID, DAY WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE FORECAST TODAY. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN CLIMB
INTO THE MID 90S, WITH DEW POINTS ONLY MIXING INTO THE LOWER 70S.
THIS WILL YIELD AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 105F RANGE ACROSS
A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MID-AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS, WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
LIKELY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN DISSIPATING DURING THE EVENING AS
DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.
THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. OTHER THAN THE NORMAL
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS, NO MAJOR CHANGES WILL BE MADE ON THIS MORNING'S UPDATE.
/19/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE HEADING INTO MONDAY THANKS TO
INCREASED SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF.
INCREASED HEAT STRESS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS
LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A
LINE FROM GRENADA TO JACKSON TO LAUREL MS WILL SEE HEAT INDEX
READINGS BETWEEN 105-110 DEGREES. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE AND
THE "ELEVATED" RISK FOR INCREASING HEAT STRESS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVERTISED. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY
GIVEN THE INCREASED WARMING TRENDS. FURTHER THREAT AREA
ADJUSTMENTS AS WELL AS HEAT HEADLINES AND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES WILL START TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA
HEADING INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGHER CONVECTION CHANCES WEDNESDAY TO
FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR SEASONABLE
LEVELS. DEWPOINTS WILL STILL REMAIN HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
WITH THE HOTTEST TIMEFRAME BEING MID MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON EACH
DAY BEFORE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS BEGIN. GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS STILL
SHOWING A TROUGH AXIS OVER THE MID TENNESSEE VALLEY DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MS HEADING INTO THE LATE WEEK. THIS
COMBINED WITH DAILY DIURNAL CONVECTION, FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND
WESTERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
TO OCCUR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW AT THIS TIME
REGARDING THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM GIVEN THE
INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE. MORE INFORMATION WILL BECOME
AVAILABLE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE LATE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH
OF THIS 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE ONLY "FLY IN THE OINTMENT". IF OBSERVED
ON-SITE, CONVECTION COULD REDUCE BOTH CEILINGS AND/OR
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR STATUS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. ONCE
CONVECTION PASSES, CATEGORIES WILL RETURN TO VFR STATUS, AND
REMAIN AS SUCH THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS, BECOMING
LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO CALM THIS EVENING. /19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 73 92 73 92 / 20 60 20 70
MERIDIAN 73 92 72 93 / 20 50 10 60
VICKSBURG 74 94 74 93 / 20 50 20 60
HATTIESBURG 73 95 73 94 / 20 60 10 70
NATCHEZ 73 92 72 91 / 20 60 10 60
GREENVILLE 73 93 74 91 / 20 50 20 60
GREENWOOD 74 94 74 91 / 20 60 20 70
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
19
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