706
FXUS64 KJAN 080224
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
924 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 920 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
AFTER A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE MICROBURSTS IMPACTED PORTIONS OF THE
AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, MOST DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DIMINISH, ALBEIT SLOWLY IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MS AREA WHERE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS WERE RELATED TO KEEP SOME RAIN CHANCES GOING A LITTLE
LONGER. OTHERWISE, ALL IS ON TRACK FOR THE EVENING NEAR TERM
UPDATE. /EC/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...
NOT MUCH CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY EVENING, QUIET CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS MOST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS A FEW
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 84 CORRIDOR. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. HREF
GUIDANCE IS ONCE AGAIN SHOWING LOW PROBABILITIES (AROUND 10-20%) OF
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE ANY FOG GRAPHICS AT THIS
TIME, BUT PATCHY SHALLOW FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY AROUND
DAWN. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DIP INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS OUR CWA LOOKING AHEAD
INTO TUESDAY AS MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST REGION. A FEW STRONG SCATTERED T-STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL PEAK INTO THE LOW TO
MID 90S AREAWIDE. HEAT STRESS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS
IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN. AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM GRENADA
TO JACKSON TO LAUREL MS WILL SEE HEAT INDEX READINGS BETWEEN 105-110
DEGREES. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE AND THE "ELEVATED" RISK FOR
INCREASING HEAT STRESS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED. FURTHER
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRAPHICS AS WELL AS HEAT HEADLINES AND ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS WE GET THROUGH THIS WEEK. HEAT TRENDS WILL
CONTINUED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK (MONDAY)...
THE FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST. WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SEE HIGHER COVERAGE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS.
DEWPOINTS WILL STILL REMAIN HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH THE
HOTTEST TIMEFRAME BEING MID MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON EACH DAY BEFORE
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS BEGIN.
GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING A TROUGH AXIS OVER THE MID
TENNESSEE VALLEY DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MS HEADING INTO
THE LATE WEEK. THIS COMBINED WITH DAILY DIURNAL CONVECTION,
FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND WESTERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG
TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TO OCCUR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO
LOW AT THIS TIME REGARDING THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM
GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE. MORE INFORMATION
WILL BECOME AVAILABLE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE LATE WEEK.
FUTURE GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO SHOW A 1016-1020MB SFC HIGH OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. TO THE WEST OF THIS HIGH, SOUTHERLY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR CWA LOOKING
AHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK MONDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE PINE BELT. /CR/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SURFACE WIND WILL PREVAIL FOR THE MOST
PART THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BRIEF EXCEPTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH
ISOLATED DIURNAL TSRA IMPACTING SITES AND/OR SHALLOW EARLY
MORNING BR. /EC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 73 93 73 91 / 10 50 20 70
MERIDIAN 72 94 72 93 / 30 40 10 60
VICKSBURG 74 94 74 91 / 10 50 20 70
HATTIESBURG 73 95 74 96 / 0 40 10 70
NATCHEZ 72 92 72 90 / 10 50 10 70
GREENVILLE 73 93 73 91 / 10 50 20 60
GREENWOOD 74 94 74 92 / 30 60 20 70
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/CR/
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