412
FXUS64 KJAN 081432 AAB
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
932 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
REST OF TODAY...ANOTHER HOT, HUMID DAY WILL EXIST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE MID
90S, WITH DEW POINTS ONLY MIXING INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 70S.
THIS WILL AGAIN YIELD AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 105F
RANGE ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH WEAK TROUGHING OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AND HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT NUDGING IN FROM THE EAST, THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO
WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA TODAY, BUT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL EXIST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS, WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS LIKELY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN DISSIPATING IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING
GRADUALLY WANES.
THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. OTHER THAN THE NORMAL
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS, NO MAJOR CHANGES WILL BE MADE ON THIS MORNING'S UPDATE. /19/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY AS
MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST REGION. A FEW
STRONG SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS
AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL PEAK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S
AREAWIDE. HEAT STRESS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TODAY, WITH
PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE DELTA REGION NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE
105 DEGREES. WILL ADVERTISE A "LIMITED" HEAT STRESS THREAT FOR
THOSE AREAS.
THE FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST. WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SEE HIGHER COVERAGE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONABLE
LEVELS. DEWPOINTS WILL STILL REMAIN HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
WITH THE HOTTEST TIMEFRAME BEING MID MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON EACH
DAY BEFORE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS BEGIN.
GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING A TROUGH AXIS OVER THE MID
TENNESSEE VALLEY DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MS HEADING INTO
THE LATE WEEK. THIS COMBINED WITH DAILY DIURNAL CONVECTION,
FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND WESTERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG
TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TO OCCUR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO
LOW AT THIS TIME REGARDING THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM
GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE. MORE INFORMATION
WILL BECOME AVAILABLE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE LATE WEEK.
FUTURE GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO SHOW A 1016-1020MB SFC HIGH OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. TO THE WEST OF THIS HIGH, SOUTHERLY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR CWA LOOKING
AHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK MONDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE PINE BELT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 714 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD, HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHRA AND TSRA TO IMPACT THE
VARIOUS SITES MAINLY BETWEEN AROUND 20Z TODAY THROUGH 02Z
WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCLUDED THE TIME FRAME OF MOST LIKELY IMPACTS IN
THE TAFS. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 94 73 90 73 / 40 20 80 30
MERIDIAN 93 72 92 71 / 40 20 70 30
VICKSBURG 93 74 90 73 / 40 20 70 30
HATTIESBURG 95 74 94 73 / 40 20 70 20
NATCHEZ 92 72 90 73 / 50 20 80 30
GREENVILLE 93 73 89 73 / 50 30 70 30
GREENWOOD 94 73 90 73 / 50 30 80 30
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
19
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page