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FXUS64 KJAN 081716 AAC
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1216 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
REST OF TODAY...ANOTHER HOT, HUMID DAY WILL EXIST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE MID
90S, WITH DEW POINTS ONLY MIXING INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 70S.
THIS WILL AGAIN YIELD AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 105F
RANGE ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH WEAK TROUGHING OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AND HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT NUDGING IN FROM THE EAST, THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO
WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA TODAY, BUT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL EXIST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS, WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS LIKELY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN DISSIPATING IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING
GRADUALLY WANES.
THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. OTHER THAN THE NORMAL
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS, NO MAJOR CHANGES WILL BE MADE ON THIS MORNING'S UPDATE. /19/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY AS
MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST REGION. A FEW
STRONG SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS
AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL PEAK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S
AREAWIDE. HEAT STRESS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TODAY, WITH
PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE DELTA REGION NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE
105 DEGREES. WILL ADVERTISE A "LIMITED" HEAT STRESS THREAT FOR
THOSE AREAS.
THE FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST. WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SEE HIGHER COVERAGE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONABLE
LEVELS. DEWPOINTS WILL STILL REMAIN HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
WITH THE HOTTEST TIMEFRAME BEING MID MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON EACH
DAY BEFORE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS BEGIN.
GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING A TROUGH AXIS OVER THE MID
TENNESSEE VALLEY DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MS HEADING INTO
THE LATE WEEK. THIS COMBINED WITH DAILY DIURNAL CONVECTION,
FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND WESTERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG
TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TO OCCUR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO
LOW AT THIS TIME REGARDING THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM
GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE. MORE INFORMATION
WILL BECOME AVAILABLE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE LATE WEEK.
FUTURE GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO SHOW A 1016-1020MB SFC HIGH OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. TO THE WEST OF THIS HIGH, SOUTHERLY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR CWA LOOKING
AHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK MONDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE PINE BELT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH
OF TODAY'S 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE POSSIBLE AT AREA SITES. IF
OBSERVED, CONVECTION COULD REDUCE BOTH CEILINGS AND/OR
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR STATUS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. ONCE
CONVECTION PASSES AND/OR DISSIPATES, CATEGORIES WILL RETURN TO VFR
STATUS, AND REMAIN AS SUCH THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN
5-8 KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO CALM
OVERNIGHT. /19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 73 90 73 89 / 20 80 30 80
MERIDIAN 72 92 71 90 / 20 70 30 80
VICKSBURG 74 90 73 90 / 20 70 30 70
HATTIESBURG 74 94 73 94 / 20 70 20 80
NATCHEZ 72 90 73 90 / 20 80 30 80
GREENVILLE 73 89 73 88 / 30 70 30 60
GREENWOOD 73 90 73 88 / 30 80 30 70
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
19
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