612
FXUS64 KJAN 081744
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1244 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...
LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH
MS, WEST MS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LA AND ALL OF OUR NORTHEAST LA
PARISHES. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT. HREF GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING LOW PROBABILITIES (AROUND 10-20%) OF PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE ANY FOG GRAPHICS AT THIS TIME,
BUT PATCHY SHALLOW FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY AROUND DAWN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 70S.
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ADVECTION FROM THE GULF WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 40 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT. INCREASING HEAT STRESS WILL CONTINUE
TOMORROW WITH AREAS WEST OF I-55 HAVING THE BEST POTENTIAL TO REACH
THE 105 HEAT INDEX MARK. FOR THIS REASON, NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE HEAT GRAPHIC FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE "LIMITED" RISK FOR INCREASING
HEAT STRESS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED. AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
HWY 49, INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST AR, WILL SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S. ELSEWHERE, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE LOW 90S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK (TUESDAY)...
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SEE HIGHER COVERAGE IN SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONABLE
LEVELS. DEWPOINTS WILL STILL REMAIN HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
WITH THE HOTTEST TIMEFRAME BEING MID MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON EACH
DAY BEFORE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS BEGIN.
GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING A TROUGH AXIS OVER THE MID
TENNESSEE VALLEY DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MS HEADING INTO
THE LATE WEEK. THIS COMBINED WITH DAILY DIURNAL CONVECTION,
FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND WESTERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG
TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TO OCCUR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
AT THIS TIME REGARDING THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM GIVEN
THE INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE. MORE INFORMATION WILL
BECOME AVAILABLE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE LATE WEEK. STORM CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAT WILL MAKE A
RETURN ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH DEWPOINTS
FORECASTED TO PEAK IN MID TO HIGH 70S AND HIGHS IN THE 90S, AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF I-55 WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH HEAT INDEX
READINGS BETWEEN 105-109. HEAT HEADLINES AND ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.
THE GFS GUIDANCE IS CONTINUING TO HIGHLIGHT A 1016-1020MB SFC HIGH
OVER THE EASTERN GULF. TO THE WEST OF THIS HIGH, SOUTHERLY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR CWA
LOOKING AHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK MONDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE PINE BELT. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA HEADING INTO TUESDAY.
LOOKING BEYOND THE EXTENDED PERIOD, FUTURE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
AFTERNOON HIGHS PEAKING IN THE MID 90S AREAWIDE. THIS COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S ALONG WITH HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105-110 DEGREES. HEAT TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE BE MONITORED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AND HEAT HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AS WELL.
/CR/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH
OF TODAY'S 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE POSSIBLE AT AREA SITES. IF
OBSERVED, CONVECTION COULD REDUCE BOTH CEILINGS AND/OR
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR STATUS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. ONCE
CONVECTION PASSES AND/OR DISSIPATES, CATEGORIES WILL RETURN TO VFR
STATUS, AND REMAIN AS SUCH THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN
5-8 KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO CALM
OVERNIGHT. /19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 73 90 72 89 / 20 70 30 80
MERIDIAN 72 92 71 90 / 10 60 20 80
VICKSBURG 73 90 73 89 / 20 70 30 70
HATTIESBURG 74 94 74 93 / 20 60 20 80
NATCHEZ 71 90 72 89 / 20 70 20 70
GREENVILLE 72 89 72 89 / 40 60 30 60
GREENWOOD 72 90 72 89 / 30 70 30 70
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
CR/19
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