054
FXUS64 KJAN 090504
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1204 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ADVECTION FROM THE GULF WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST, BUT HIGHS WILL BE A TOUCH LOWER
AS THEY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE MIDDLE 90S. THIS IS DUE TO A
BETTER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL BE HELD MORE IN-CHECK, BUT TOASTY NONETHELESS.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SEE HIGHER COVERAGE IN SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONABLE
LEVELS. DEWPOINTS WILL STILL REMAIN HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
WITH THE HOTTEST TIMEFRAME BEING MID MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON EACH
DAY BEFORE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS BEGIN.
GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING A TROUGH AXIS OVER THE MID
TENNESSEE VALLEY DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MS HEADING INTO
THE LATE WEEK. THIS COMBINED WITH DAILY DIURNAL CONVECTION,
FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND WESTERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG
TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TO OCCUR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
AT THIS TIME REGARDING THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM GIVEN
THE INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE. MORE INFORMATION WILL
BECOME AVAILABLE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE LATE WEEK. STORM CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAT WILL MAKE A
RETURN ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH DEWPOINTS
FORECASTED TO PEAK IN MID TO HIGH 70S AND HIGHS IN THE 90S, AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF I-55 WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH HEAT INDEX
READINGS BETWEEN 105-109. HEAT HEADLINES AND ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.
THE GFS GUIDANCE IS CONTINUING TO HIGHLIGHT A 1016-1020MB SFC HIGH
OVER THE EASTERN GULF. TO THE WEST OF THIS HIGH, SOUTHERLY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR CWA
LOOKING AHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK MONDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE PINE BELT. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA HEADING INTO TUESDAY.
LOOKING BEYOND THE EXTENDED PERIOD, FUTURE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
AFTERNOON HIGHS PEAKING IN THE MID 90S AREAWIDE. THIS COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S ALONG WITH HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105-110 DEGREES. HEAT TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE BE MONITORED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AND HEAT HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AS WELL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
IT APPEARS SOME MERGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL HELP CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY LINGER A BIT LONGER THIS EVENING OVER THE JAN/HKS AREA,
BUT CONFIDENCE IN IMPACT IS LOW. OTHERWISE, PERSISTENCE WILL BE A
GOOD FORECAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SURFACE WIND OVERALL,
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF IMPACTS FROM DIURNALLY DRIVEN
ISOLATED TSRA AND SHALLOW EARLY MORNING FOG. /EC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 90 72 89 73 / 70 30 80 20
MERIDIAN 92 71 90 71 / 60 20 80 20
VICKSBURG 90 73 89 74 / 70 30 70 20
HATTIESBURG 94 74 93 74 / 60 20 80 20
NATCHEZ 90 72 89 74 / 70 20 70 10
GREENVILLE 89 72 89 73 / 60 30 60 20
GREENWOOD 90 72 89 74 / 70 30 70 30
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC
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