625
FXUS64 KJAN 100243 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
943 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
LOCAL RADARS SHOWED A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINING OVER OUR CWA TONIGHT
MODEL CONSENSUS MAINTAINS REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED POPS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT WL
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS NEARLY ALONG THE NATCHEZ TRACE AND EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WAS RUNNING WARMER
THAN NORMAL WHILE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HALF WAS RAIN-COOLED
DOWN TO FORECAST LOWS. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE CURVES THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS BUT LEFT FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ALONE FOR
NOW. /22/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
AT THE RISK OF SOUNDING LIKE A BROKEN ON REPEAT, NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE NEAR TERM. MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER ADVECTION FROM THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF ANY
SEVERE STORMS, HOWEVER, SOME ISOLATED STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS OUR CWA. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 WILL HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL TO REACH THE 101-105 HEAT INDEX RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, AREAS NORTH OF I-20 WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 105 HEAT
INDEX MARK. BECAUSE OF THIS, NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE
HEAT GRAPHIC IN OUR HWO FOR TODAY AND THE "LIMITED" THREAT FOR
INCREASING HEAT STRESS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED FOR TODAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE LOW 90S. AREAS ACROSS THE DELTA
WILL SEE HIGHS PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORM COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR CWA LATER
THIS EVENING. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS EAST MS. AFTERNOON HREF GUIDANCE IS SHOWING LOW PROBABILITIES
OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. FOG GRAPHICS WILL NOT BE INTRODUCED AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE
LOW CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT. WITH THAT IN MIND, PATCHY SHALLOW
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY AROUND DAWN. EXPECT NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOW 70S AREAWIDE.
A TROUGH AXIS OVER THE MID TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN MS BY THE LATE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS (AROUND 60-75%) MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG EAST OF
I-55. THIS WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE IS
STILL SHOWING DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HUMID CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH THE MID AFTERNOON TO MID AFTERNOON BEING THE
HOTTEST TIMEFRAME BEFORE STORMS BEGIN. SEVERAL STRONG TO MARGINALLY
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. /CR/
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK (WEDNESDAY)...
THE FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST. STORM CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAT WILL MAKE A
RETURN ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH DEWPOINTS
FORECASTED TO PEAK IN MID TO HIGH 70S AND HIGHS IN THE 90S, AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM GRENADA TO JACKSON TO LAUREL MS WILL
HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO REACH HEAT INDEX READINGS BETWEEN
105-110. AT THIS TIME, NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE HEAT
GRAPHIC AND A "ELEVATED" RISK FOR DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISED. FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRAPHICS AS WELL
AS HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND.
THE GFS GUIDANCE IS CONTINUING TO HIGHLIGHT A 1016-1020MB SFC HIGH
OVER THE EASTERN GULF. TO THE WEST OF THIS HIGH, SOUTHERLY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR CWA
LOOKING AHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK MONDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE PINE BELT. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA HEADING INTO TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT DROP IN COVERAGE
BY WEDNESDAY.
LOOKING BEYOND THE EXTENDED PERIOD, FUTURE GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING
AFTERNOON HIGHS PEAKING IN THE MID 90S AREAWIDE. THIS COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S ALONG WITH HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105-110 DEGREES WITH A FEW AREAS
SEEING HEAT INDEX READINGS ABOVE 110 DEGREES. HEAT TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE BE MONITORED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AND HEAT HEADLINES/ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS MAY EVENTUALLY
BE NEEDED AS WELL. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A "SIGNIFICANT" RISK FOR
DANGEROUS HEAT MAY BE INTRODUCED IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES. /CR/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
SCATTERED TSRA WAS NOTED ON LOCAL RADARS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
AND WL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TAF SITES THROUGH 02Z BEFORE GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING. TSRA WL DEVELOP AND BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS ACROSS
THE AREA THU AFTN. AWAY FROM TSRA VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 72 88 72 91 / 20 70 20 70
MERIDIAN 72 90 70 91 / 20 70 20 80
VICKSBURG 72 90 74 94 / 20 60 20 40
HATTIESBURG 73 94 74 94 / 10 70 20 80
NATCHEZ 72 88 73 92 / 20 60 20 50
GREENVILLE 72 91 72 93 / 10 30 10 30
GREENWOOD 72 91 72 92 / 20 40 10 50
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
/CR/22
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