779
FXUS64 KJAN 100551
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1251 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2025
THROUGH FRIDAY:
LOCAL RADARS SHOWED A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINING OVER OUR CWA TONIGHT
MODEL CONSENSUS MAINTAINS REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED POPS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT WL
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS NEARLY ALONG THE NATCHEZ TRACE AND EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WAS RUNNING WARMER
THAN NORMAL WHILE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HALF WAS RAIN-COOLED
DOWN TO FORECAST LOWS. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE CURVES THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS BUT LEFT FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ALONE FOR
NOW.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE NEAR
TERM. MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ADVECTION FROM THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF
ANY SEVERE STORMS, HOWEVER, SOME ISOLATED STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS OUR CWA. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 WILL HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL TO REACH THE 101-105 HEAT INDEX RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, AREAS NORTH OF I-20 WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 105 HEAT
INDEX MARK. BECAUSE OF THIS, NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE HEAT
GRAPHIC IN OUR HWO FOR TODAY AND THE "LIMITED" THREAT FOR INCREASING
HEAT STRESS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED FOR TODAY. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE LOWER 90S. AREAS ACROSS THE DELTA WILL SEE
HIGHS PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORM COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR CWA LATER
THIS EVENING. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS EAST MS. AFTERNOON HREF GUIDANCE IS SHOWING LOW PROBABILITIES
OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. FOG GRAPHICS WILL NOT BE INTRODUCED AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE
LOW CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT. WITH THAT IN MIND, PATCHY SHALLOW
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY AROUND DAWN. EXPECT NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 70S AREAWIDE.
A TROUGH AXIS OVER THE MID TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN MS BY THE LATE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS (AROUND 60-75%) MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG EAST OF
I-55. THIS WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE IS
STILL SHOWING DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HUMID CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH THE MID AFTERNOON TO MID AFTERNOON BEING THE
HOTTEST TIMEFRAME BEFORE STORMS BEGIN. SEVERAL STRONG TO MARGINALLY
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK (WEDNESDAY):
THE FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST. STORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS OUR CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAT WILL MAKE A RETURN
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH DEWPOINTS FORECASTED TO
PEAK IN MID TO HIGH 70S AND HIGHS IN THE 90S, AREAS ALONG AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM GRENADA TO JACKSON TO LAUREL MS WILL HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL TO REACH HEAT INDEX READINGS BETWEEN 105-110. AT THIS
TIME, NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE HEAT GRAPHIC AND A "ELEVATED"
RISK FOR DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISED. FUTURE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRAPHICS AS WELL AS HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.
THE GFS GUIDANCE IS CONTINUING TO HIGHLIGHT A 1016-1020MB SFC HIGH
OVER THE EASTERN GULF. TO THE WEST OF THIS HIGH, SOUTHERLY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR CWA
LOOKING AHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK MONDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE PINE BELT. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA HEADING INTO TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT DROP IN COVERAGE
BY WEDNESDAY.
LOOKING BEYOND THE EXTENDED PERIOD, FUTURE GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING
AFTERNOON HIGHS PEAKING IN THE MID 90S AREAWIDE. THIS COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S ALONG WITH HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105-110 DEGREES WITH A FEW AREAS
SEEING HEAT INDEX READINGS ABOVE 110 DEGREES. HEAT TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE BE MONITORED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AND HEAT HEADLINES/ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS MAY EVENTUALLY
BE NEEDED AS WELL. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A "SIGNIFICANT" RISK FOR
DANGEROUS HEAT MAY BE INTRODUCED IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2025
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES, BUT SOME PATCHY BR
OR LOW STRATUS CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT AROUND 12Z. SCATTERED
SHRA AND TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY BETWEEN 20Z THURSDAY AND 00Z
FRIDAY. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 90 72 92 73 / 70 20 70 10
MERIDIAN 91 72 91 72 / 80 30 80 10
VICKSBURG 90 73 94 74 / 60 20 50 10
HATTIESBURG 94 74 93 74 / 80 30 80 10
NATCHEZ 88 72 92 73 / 80 20 60 0
GREENVILLE 91 72 93 73 / 30 20 40 10
GREENWOOD 91 72 93 73 / 40 20 50 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/06
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page