650
FXUS64 KJAN 111216 AAB
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
716 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 714 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025
OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS GOOD, BUT DID ADJUST POPS AND WEATHER
ELEMENTS FOR TODAY WITH LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE INCLUDED. THIS
LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY, BUT STILL LOOKING AT 30-70% CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. /NF/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: A 1020MB SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF FROM THE EAST RESULTING IN A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA. THE 00Z FRI JAN SOUNDING
SHOWED A PWAT OF 2.11IN. THUS, WL MAINTAIN A MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS
OUR CWA GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR CWA
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST FRIDAY. CIRCULATION AROUND THIS FEATURE
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING OF OUR MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR CWA. THIS WILL LIKELY HELP HOLD HEAT STRESS
CONCERNS DOWN BUT IN OUR WEST ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ESPECIALLY, PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE AROUND 105F. WL CONTINUE
TO HIGHLIGHT THIS AREA WITH A "LIMITED" FOR HEAT STRESS BUT AS WE
HEAD INTO SATURDAY, LOWER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES MAY WARRANT A HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF OUR CWA.
/22/
SATURDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...
MUCH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL APPLIES, AS WE ARE STILL UNDER A
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN. THE MAIN THING WILL BE A STEADY INCREASE IN
HEAT AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO THE MID 90S BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES MAY EVEN CRACK THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 BY MID NEXT
WEEK AS WNW LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES PROMOTE DEEPER MIXING. RESULTING
HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE 105-110 RANGE, THOUGH SPOTS OF 110+
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A LIMITED/ELEVATED HEAT
MESSAGING FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A
TARGETED UPGRADE TO SIGNIFICANT IF TRENDS HOLD. THAT SAID, MOISTURE
REMAINS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THE PERSISTENCE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN QUESTION IS THE TIMING OF THOSE STORMS, AS
AN EARLIER ONSET COULD LIMIT HEAT RISK A BIT. NOTABLY, LOWER POPS IN
THE WEST INCREASES CONFIDENCE FOR HEAT IN THESE AREAS. GIVEN THE HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS, WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR MICROBURST POTENTIAL
DAY TO DAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 714 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES, BUT SOME LOW
STRATUS NEAR KHEZ TO START THE PERIOD SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT INTO VFR
RANGE. SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY BETWEEN 20Z
TODAY AND 00Z SATURDAY. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 91 73 94 74 / 60 20 30 10
MERIDIAN 89 72 94 73 / 80 20 40 10
VICKSBURG 93 74 95 74 / 40 20 20 10
HATTIESBURG 93 74 96 74 / 70 20 60 10
NATCHEZ 92 73 94 73 / 50 20 40 0
GREENVILLE 93 73 94 74 / 30 20 20 10
GREENWOOD 93 73 95 74 / 50 20 20 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
06/22
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