275
FXUS64 KJAN 111428 AAB
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
928 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025
REST OF TODAY...ANOTHER DAY OF WARM HUMID CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY
BEGUN BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, AND AS WE
CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, CONVECTION
WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS IN NATURE IN THIS
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE OVER
THE AREA, PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES NOTED ON THE 12Z
KJAN RAOB, HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY OF TODAY'S
CONVECTION. ALSO, DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT AND POTENTIAL TRAINING OF
CONVECTION, SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CAN'T BE RULED OUT,
ESPECIALLY IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. OTHERWISE, SOME OF
THE MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS, ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. I DID ADJUST POPS A
BIT TO FIT THE EARLY START OF SHOWERS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
OTHER THAN THAT, AND THE NORMAL ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY ELEMENTS OF
THE FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS, NO FURTHER CHANGES WILL BE
MADE ON THIS MORNING'S UPDATE. /19/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: A 1020MB SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF FROM THE EAST RESULTING IN A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA. THE 00Z FRI JAN SOUNDING
SHOWED A PWAT OF 2.11IN. THUS, WL MAINTAIN A MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS
OUR CWA GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR CWA
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST FRIDAY. CIRCULATION AROUND THIS FEATURE
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING OF OUR MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR CWA. THIS WILL LIKELY HELP HOLD HEAT STRESS
CONCERNS DOWN BUT IN OUR WEST ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ESPECIALLY, PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE AROUND 105F. WL CONTINUE
TO HIGHLIGHT THIS AREA WITH A "LIMITED" FOR HEAT STRESS BUT AS WE
HEAD INTO SATURDAY, LOWER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES MAY WARRANT A HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF OUR CWA.
/22/
SATURDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...
MUCH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL APPLIES, AS WE ARE STILL UNDER A
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN. THE MAIN THING WILL BE A STEADY INCREASE IN
HEAT AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO THE MID 90S BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES MAY EVEN CRACK THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 BY MID NEXT
WEEK AS WNW LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES PROMOTE DEEPER MIXING. RESULTING
HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE 105-110 RANGE, THOUGH SPOTS OF 110+
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A LIMITED/ELEVATED HEAT
MESSAGING FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A
TARGETED UPGRADE TO SIGNIFICANT IF TRENDS HOLD. THAT SAID, MOISTURE
REMAINS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THE PERSISTENCE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN QUESTION IS THE TIMING OF THOSE STORMS, AS
AN EARLIER ONSET COULD LIMIT HEAT RISK A BIT. NOTABLY, LOWER POPS IN
THE WEST INCREASES CONFIDENCE FOR HEAT IN THESE AREAS. GIVEN THE HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS, WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR MICROBURST POTENTIAL
DAY TO DAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 714 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES, BUT SOME LOW
STRATUS NEAR KHEZ TO START THE PERIOD SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT INTO VFR
RANGE. SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY BETWEEN 20Z
TODAY AND 00Z SATURDAY. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 91 73 94 74 / 50 20 30 10
MERIDIAN 90 72 94 73 / 60 20 40 10
VICKSBURG 93 74 95 74 / 40 20 20 10
HATTIESBURG 93 74 96 74 / 70 20 60 10
NATCHEZ 92 73 94 73 / 50 20 40 0
GREENVILLE 92 73 94 74 / 30 20 20 10
GREENWOOD 92 73 95 74 / 40 20 20 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
19
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